SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 7 – September 24, 2024

Real Madrid’s Statistical Status

Based on their current form, Real Madrid is considered a dominant team. Out of the six matches they have played in the 2024–2025 season so far, they have won five, demonstrating stable performance. The team’s xG (expected goals) is significantly higher than their opponents’ (14.3 vs. 4.2), which indicates they excel in offensive strength. Kylian Mbappé stands out with an xG of 6.3, while Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo also play key attacking roles. Therefore, the team’s attackers are very likely to score, especially at home, where they have consistently found the net in recent matches.

Defensively, Real Madrid has conceded only 3 goals in six matches, with goalkeeper Courtois boasting a 75% save rate, which is an excellent performance. The defense is also strong, with Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger performing well in the backline, making it difficult for opponents to create chances.

Alavés’ Statistical Status

Alavés, on the other hand, has shown mixed performances. They have won three and lost two of their six matches, but their xG (8.4) is much lower than Real Madrid’s, indicating they create fewer attacking opportunities. One of their most dangerous forwards is Toni Martínez, who has scored 2 goals in 1.7 matches, with an xG of 1.1, suggesting he could pose a threat to Real Madrid’s defense. However, Alavés’ defense is not as solid: they have conceded 7 goals so far, and goalkeeper Sivera’s 70% save rate is not outstanding.

The team’s main problem is weak possession and passing accuracy, which can be especially disadvantageous against a team of Real Madrid’s caliber, as they are highly efficient in capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. In their most recent matches (against Celta Vigo and Espanyol), Alavés conceded goals due to defensive errors.

Motivation and Expected Starting Lineups

Experts suggest that Real Madrid’s motivation is particularly strong, as they are playing at home and are clearly dominant in the league. On the other hand, Alavés will likely focus on defense and counter-attacks, as the odds are against them. Based on potential starters, Madrid’s strong attack (Mbappé, Vinícius, Rodrygo) and solid defense are expected. For Alavés, Toni Martínez and Carlos Vicente could pose an attacking threat, while Abdel Abqar and Nahuel Tenaglia play key roles in defense.

Risk Analysis and Tips

Low-Risk Tip:

1. Total goals: over 2.5 – Both teams have an attacking mindset, and although Alavés is not very strong offensively, Real Madrid will likely score multiple times. Alavés, building on counter-attacks, could also have a chance for a goal. Probability: 60%

Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 3%