GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 5 – September 28, 2024
Detailed analysis of the Wolfsburg – Stuttgart match
Based on statistical and expert analysis of the match between Wolfsburg and Stuttgart, several interesting trends emerge that are worth considering when developing betting tips. The combination of statistical data and expert opinions provides a comprehensive view of the likely course of the match.
Attack analysis
In Wolfsburg’s offensive line, Ridle Baku and Mattias Svanberg are currently performing well. Baku has already scored in three matches, while Svanberg has also shown consistent performance, with the team’s xG (expected goals) at 5.4 in the matches so far. Although their attacking efficiency is not outstanding (1.75 goals per game), Wolfsburg can create scoring threats, especially by involving their midfielders and wingers.
On the other hand, Stuttgart’s attack is particularly strong. The team averages 3 goals per game, with Ermedin Demirović and Enzo Millot standing out, having scored a total of 6 goals in four matches. Stuttgart’s xG is 9.7, which is higher than Wolfsburg’s. Moreover, Stuttgart’s attacking style is reflected in their possession, averaging 56% per match.
Defense and goalkeeper performance
Wolfsburg’s defense is not stable: they have conceded 9 goals in the four Bundesliga matches played so far, which can be attributed to the goalkeeper’s performance (69.2% save rate) and the midfield’s weak defensive work. Additionally, Wolfsburg often loses possession in midfield (32 lost duels), which can lead to quick counter-attacks from the opponent.
Stuttgart’s defense is somewhat more solid, although they have also conceded 8 goals so far this season. Goalkeeper Alexander Nübel has a save rate of 68.2%, similar to Wolfsburg’s goalkeeper. Stuttgart’s strength lies in defending with possession: they have an 84.3% passing accuracy and effectively close off the opponent’s attacking zones, particularly on the wings.
Yellow cards and disciplinary indicators
Both teams are quite aggressive in defense. Wolfsburg has received 15 yellow cards so far, while Stuttgart has accumulated 8 yellows. This suggests that the match could see plenty of physical battles and cards. Watch out for tough tackles, especially in the midfield and on the flanks.
Betting suggestions
Low-risk tips:
- Both teams to score (BTTS) – probability: 75% – Both teams have strong attacking power, especially on Stuttgart’s side, where Demirović and Millot are in excellent form. Wolfsburg is also capable of scoring at home, so it’s likely that both teams will find the back of the net. Risk level: Low.
Odds: 1.49 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Over 2.5 goals in the match – probability: 65% – Based on Stuttgart’s high goal counts and Wolfsburg’s home attacking performance, it’s likely that at least three goals will be scored in the match. Risk level: Medium.