GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 4 – September 22, 2024
In this analysis, I examined the statistical data for the Bundesliga match between Stuttgart and Dortmund and compared it with human analysis. My primary goal was to make objective and well-founded recommendations that are low to medium risk and relevant for bettors.
Key points of statistical analysis:
- Stuttgart’s attacking play and xG metrics: Stuttgart’s xG (expected goals) value for the 2024-2025 season is 6.3, which is remarkable given that their actual goal count is 7. This indicates that the team is efficient in converting chances, particularly in their attack, where Ermedin Demirović and Deniz Undav stand out. Demirović has 3 goals and a high xG ratio, showing that he is one of the most dangerous forwards.
- Dortmund’s defense and goalkeeper performance: Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been outstanding, with an 85.7% save percentage and two clean sheets in two matches. Dortmund’s defense has also been strong, conceding only two goals in their three league matches, although their xGA (expected goals against) is higher (4.7). This suggests that while they have defended well so far, they may concede more goals in the future if their defensive efficiency does not improve.
- Comparison of attacking play: Stuttgart has created more chances than Dortmund (Stuttgart xG 6.3 vs. Dortmund xG 4.9), particularly through Demirović and Leweling, who constantly threaten opponents. On Dortmund’s side, Adeyemi and Malen are prominent in attack, but their chance conversion is not as effective as Stuttgart’s. Human analysis indicates that Adeyemi is motivated and energetic, while Malen is still trying to find his form.
- Defensive stability of the teams: Both Stuttgart and Dortmund have executed a similar number of defensive actions (Dortmund: 41, Stuttgart: 39), but Dortmund has recorded more blocked shots. Stuttgart’s defense, led by Chabot and Karazor, is solid but sometimes prone to errors, which Dortmund’s quick attacks could exploit.
- Possession and passing game: Dortmund has better possession statistics, with an 86.4% passing accuracy, indicating that they may dominate the game and control the play. Stuttgart’s passing is slightly less accurate (84.2%), but they remain effective in attack.
Medium-risk tips:
- Dortmund draw or win (X2): Dortmund has stronger attacking and defensive statistics and can exploit Stuttgart’s defensive weaknesses.
Odds: 1.63 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Over 3.5 yellow cards (probability: 65%): Both teams feature several aggressive players, and human analysis suggests that a tense match is likely.