EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 17, 2024
Statistical Analysis
Real Madrid:
- Performance: Based on recent matches, Real Madrid has dominated, winning 4 out of 5 games and drawing 1. Their average goal difference is 1.8 (Gf: 9, Ga: 2), indicating strong defense and balanced attacking play. Their xG (expected goals) is 10.0, which shows that their performance aligns with what the statistics would predict.
- Player Performances: Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior are particularly notable, with Mbappé averaging 0.62 goals per game, and Vinícius also being highly productive (0.62). Both lead in assists and creative movements (xAG). Rüdiger and Militão are the pillars of the defense, while goalkeeper Courtois has a save percentage of 81.8%.
- Passing Game: Their passing efficiency is outstanding, especially with Éder Militão and Antonio Rüdiger, who both have a passing accuracy above 90%, ensuring Real Madrid dominates possession during matches.
Stuttgart:
- Performance: Stuttgart has had a poor start to the season, conceding 7 goals in 3 matches, with a GA90 of 2.33. Their xGA is 6.0, which shows they are conceding more than what the statistical model would predict. However, Demirović and Undav pose a significant threat in attack (Demirović has scored 3 goals in 2 matches), with Millot also contributing goals.
- Defensive Weaknesses: Their defense is vulnerable, particularly the central defenders, Chabot and Karazor, who often struggle against attacks. Goalkeeper Nübel has not stood out with exceptional saves (68.4% save rate).
- Attack: Stuttgart has maintained a lot of possession in their Bundesliga matches (over 60% on average), but their attacking efficiency has not always been effective. Their xG is 6.3, but only 7 goals have been scored. The roles of Demirović and Undav are critical in this area.
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- Real Madrid win + Real Madrid to take more corners:
- Based on their home form and current stats, Real Madrid is expected to play confidently, with strong defense and an efficient attack. Stuttgart’s weaker defense and high number of goals conceded support the likelihood of a home win. Real Madrid’s dominant attacking play should lead to a significant number of corners, especially against Stuttgart’s weak defense.