Major Soccer League – 23rd September 2024
Philadelphia Union statistical analysis:
- Home performance: Philadelphia Union performed exceptionally well at home during the 2024 season, scoring 53 goals in 29 matches, which averages 1.83 goals per match. Their defense is also stable, conceding only 46 goals, an average of 1.59 goals per match.
- Forwards and midfielders: Dániel Gazdag particularly stood out with 15 goals and 1 assist. Gazdag and Carranza are the most dangerous in attacks, but Mikael Uhre and Kai Wagner also play active roles in the attacking third, as reflected by their 14 (Uhre) and 9 (Wagner) combined goals and assists. Philadelphia Union’s xG (expected goals) stands at 51.5, while their opponents’ xG was 44.3.
- Defense: In defense, Jakob Glesnes and Kai Wagner are key players. Both have an outstanding pass accuracy, providing stability to the team, especially during build-ups.
DC United statistical analysis:
- Struggling season: DC United also played 29 matches but only scored 44 goals, trailing behind Philadelphia. Their 56 conceded goals, averaging 1.93 per match, is one of the worst in the league.
- Key players: Christian Benteke was the top scorer with 19 goals. Jared Stroud (7 assists) and Mateusz Klich (5 assists) also play crucial roles in building attacks. DC United’s xG is 44.8, which aligns with their actual performance, meaning they didn’t miss many scoring chances.
- Defense: Defense is a weak point, as demonstrated by the 57 goals conceded. Goalkeeper Alex Bono has a 61.4% save rate, but the team’s defense remains unstable.
Key statistical correlations:
- Goal difference: Philadelphia Union generally performs stronger at home, while DC United’s away performance is inconsistent. Philadelphia has dominated most of their 2024 home games, while DC United has lost 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- XG comparison: Philadelphia’s expected goals (xG) are higher than DC United’s, especially at home, making them the favorites in terms of goal potential.
- Team motivation: Philadelphia Union is fighting for playoff spots, so they will be highly motivated. DC United, with fewer stakes left in the season, may not exert the same effort.
Low-risk tips:
- Both teams to score: Although DC United is weaker, Benteke and Stroud may still find the net.
Odds: 1.48 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 goals: Both teams are prone to conceding many goals, especially DC United, so at least 3 goals are expected in the match.
Odds: 1.48 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-risk tips:
- Philadelphia Union win: Based on Philadelphia’s stronger home performance and DC United’s weaker defense, this is a low-risk bet. Probability: 65%.
Odds: 1.93 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Christian Benteke to score: Benteke is DC United’s most reliable scorer, so if DC scores, it will likely come from him. Probability: 50%.
Odds: 2.15 – Safe Kelly: 0.5%
- Over 4.5 yellow cards: Both teams play physically, so many fouls are expected. Probability: 60%.