EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 17, 2024
Analysis of Milan and Liverpool Statistics
Milan
Milan’s current form has produced mixed results. Out of four matches, they have won one, drawn two, and lost one. Based on attacking statistics, Rafael Leão and Christian Pulisic are key players. Pulisic has recorded 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 matches, while Leão has scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists. The team’s xG (expected goals) for the last four matches is 7.5, indicating that they have potential in attack. However, Milan’s defense does not seem entirely stable: opponents have generated 5 expected goals against them, and the defense has occasionally lacked focus, as seen in matches against Torino and Lazio.
Mike Maignan, their goalkeeper, has a save rate of 53.8% across 4 matches, suggesting that Milan’s defense often allows opponents to create chances, putting Maignan under significant pressure. In terms of defense, Strahinja Pavlović and Fikayo Tomori stand out, both contributing significantly with tackles and blocks.
Liverpool
Liverpool has had a particularly strong start to the season, with three wins and one loss in the Premier League. Their attack, led by Mohamed Salah, Luis Díaz, and Diogo Jota, has been productive. Salah has already registered 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 matches, while Luis Díaz has scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist. Liverpool has scored a total of 7 goals and conceded only 1 so far. Their xG is 7.8, matching the actual number of goals scored, indicating efficiency in finishing their attacks.
Their defense is also stable, with Alisson recording a 90% save rate and conceding only 1 goal. Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté have performed excellently in defense, both playing with over 90% passing accuracy and recovering numerous balls in the midfield and defensive third.
Low and Medium-Risk Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tip:
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards – (70% probability)
- Both teams play an aggressive style, and Milan’s defense has seen frequent yellow cards in previous matches.
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Under 3 Goals (Asian total) – (65% probability)
- Both teams have stable defenses, and Milan’s matches haven’t shown a high number of goals. In recent games, Milan has conceded 4, while Liverpool has conceded only 1, so a low-scoring match is likely.