ITALY: Serie A – Round 6 – September 27, 2024
Milan Statistical Analysis:
Milan’s performance in the 2024-2025 season can be summarized in the following key points:
- Attack and xG (Expected Goals): Milan has scored a total of 11 goals in the first 5 matches, while their xG (expected goals) is 9.2. This indicates that they have slightly outperformed based on their chances. Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão are the main goal threats; both have already scored multiple times. Pulisic’s xG is 2.5, while Leão’s is 1.8, and both are actively involved in creating attacking chances as well (Pulisic has 1.7 xAG – expected assists).
- Defense: Milan has conceded 7 goals in 5 matches, with a GA90 (goals per 90 minutes) of 1.40. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan’s save efficiency is 58.8%, which is relatively low, but this is partly explained by defensive errors.
- Motivation and Formation: Milan is playing at home and has won 3 of their last 5 matches. Their formation is generally 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, suggesting that they will attack and try to dominate the game.
Lecce Statistical Analysis:
Lecce has adopted a more defensive strategy this season, which is reflected in their statistics.
- Attack and xG: Lecce has scored only 3 goals in their first 5 matches, while their xG is 6.6. This shows they are underperforming in attack, particularly Nikola Krstović and Patrick Dorgu. Krstović has scored 2 goals with an xG of 2.5, indicating efficiency in attack, while Dorgu has scored only 1 goal with an xG of 1.3. Their attacking play is thus not very effective.
- Defense: Lecce has conceded 8 goals in 5 matches, with a GA90 of 1.60. Their goalkeeper, Wladimiro Falcone, has a save efficiency of 71.4%, which is decent, but several serious defensive errors have occurred, as shown by the expected goals against (6.8 PSxG). This xGA (expected goals against) is higher than their actual goals conceded, suggesting their defense is occasionally overwhelmed.
Connections and Insights:
- Milan is likely to dominate the match, especially at home. Statistically, Milan’s attack is stronger and will create more opportunities against Lecce’s defense.
- Lecce struggles with goal-scoring, while Milan has a stronger attacking lineup, especially with Pulisic and Leão. Lecce will probably play defensively and create fewer chances.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Milan to Win: Milan is playing at home and is in better form based on current statistics. Lecce struggles with attack, while Milan can create more opportunities. Probability: 70%.
- Risk: Low
Odds: 1.40 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Milan to Score More Than 1.5 Goals: Milan has averaged 2.20 goals per game, and Lecce’s defense is vulnerable. It is likely they will score at least 2 goals. Probability: 65%.
- Risk: Low.
Odds: 1.41 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- More Than 3.5 Yellow Cards: Both teams have a playing style prone to roughness. Lecce has collected 10 yellow cards so far, while Milan has 9. Probability: 65%.
- Risk: Medium.