GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 4 – September 20, 2024
Analysis
Augsburg’s performance:
Augsburg’s current statistics show mixed results in their previous matches: 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss over three games. In attack, Samuel Essende stands out with 9 shots, 1 goal, and an xG value of 1.2. Phillip Tietz is also a dangerous player, providing 2 assists and scoring 1 goal in 2 games. However, their defense has conceded relatively many goals, which poses a risk against Mainz’s attacks. Goalkeeper Nediljko Labrović has a save percentage of 62.5%, representing a moderate performance level.
Augsburg’s defense is on shaky ground, having conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game, and their PSxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) stands at -2.3, indicating that they have conceded more goals than expected based on the quality of chances.
Mainz’s performance:
Mainz’s results are similarly mixed, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Among the attackers, Nadiem Amiri and Jonathan Burkardt stand out. Amiri has scored two goals, while Burkardt has netted one with an xG of 1.4. Mainz’s defense appears more stable than Augsburg’s, as they have conceded 2 goals per match, and their goalkeeper Robin Zentner has a save percentage of 75%, outperforming Labrović. Zentner has also performed better in terms of PSxG, with a score of -0.6, meaning he has conceded fewer goals than expected based on the shots faced.
Mainz has scored 5 goals in their three games so far, and Amiri’s shooting accuracy and efficiency (50% on target) give reason for optimism.
Expected line-ups and absentees:
According to expert analysis, Augsburg’s defense appears shaky, especially based on the performances of Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Keven Schlotterbeck, who are active in blocking and defending but do not always prevent critical situations. In Mainz, Nadiem Amiri and Jonathan Burkardt are expected to be the key players in attack, while in defense, Dominik Kohr and Phillipp Mwene stand out with their tackling and forward passes.
Low-risk tips:
- Both teams to score (BTTS) – probability: 70% – Both Augsburg and Mainz are goal-threatening teams, particularly since both have mixed defensive statistics. Augsburg’s defense is quite porous, while Mainz’s attackers, especially Burkardt and Amiri, are capable of scoring.
Odds: 1.59 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 2.5 goals in the match – probability: 65% – Due to Augsburg’s defensive errors and Mainz’s attacking form, there is a high probability that at least three goals will be scored in the match. So far, Augsburg has conceded more than 2 goals per game on average, while Mainz has scored 5 goals in their matches.