GERMANY: Bundesliga 1 – Matchday 6 – September 28, 2024
Freiburg Statistical Analysis
Freiburg has had a strong start to the season, which is well reflected in the statistics. The team has secured multiple victories in their matches so far, showcasing significant offensive and defensive statistics. Among the attackers, Junior Adamu and Ritsu Doan stand out, both having scored 2 goals this season, with high xG (expected goals) values. Adamu has recorded 2.1 xG, indicating a realistic chance of scoring again in this match. Ritsu Doan is also performing exceptionally well, with several shots on target and offensive actions.
In defense, Lukas Kübler has been effectively contributing to both defense and offense, already scoring two goals while also significantly aiding the team’s progression. Freiburg’s defensive statistics, such as the number of goals conceded (4 goals in 4 matches), demonstrate strong organization and discipline, particularly at home.
St. Pauli Statistical Analysis
St. Pauli has had a struggling start to the season, remaining winless in their Bundesliga matches so far, which puts psychological pressure on the team. Their offensive efficiency is weak, with only one goal scored this season, by Carlo Boukhalfa. Their attack’s xG values are low (a total of 3.6 xG for the season), suggesting they are struggling to convert their attacks into scoring opportunities.
In defense, goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj has performed outstandingly, with a save rate of 71.4%, but the defense (especially central defenders like Karol Mets and Hauke Wahl) often make mistakes and fail to provide stability for the team.
Expert Human Analysis
The analysis highlights that Freiburg’s current form, especially at home, is paired with strong motivation. The human analysis also points out that St. Pauli’s current mental state, due to their weak attacking play, could cause difficulties. However, St. Pauli’s fighting spirit and young attackers like Oladapo Afolayan and Elias Saad offer potential for some unexpected offensive actions.
Suggested Betting Tips and Risk Assessment
Low-Risk Bet:
- Freiburg to score over 1.5 goals (Probability: 65%) – Freiburg’s attack, particularly led by Grifo and Adamu, is capable of scoring multiple goals, and St. Pauli’s defense hasn’t shown much resistance so far.
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Under 10.5 corners (Probability: 60%) – Based on both teams’ statistics, neither of them relies heavily on corners, so they are unlikely to occur frequently.
Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Conclusion
The clear favorite in this match is Freiburg, especially on home ground, where strong offensive play is expected. St. Pauli’s fighting spirit may not be enough to mount serious resistance, making a Freiburg victory and at least two goals a likely outcome.