ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 7 – October 5, 2024
Crystal Palace’s Performance
Crystal Palace has managed to win only 1 out of 6 Premier League matches this season, which highlights the struggles of their attacking unit. The team averages just 1 goal per match, which is insufficient against a strong opponent like Liverpool. Their xG (expected goals) hovers around 1.25, confirming that Palace’s attacking options are limited.
Jean-Philippe Mateta, Crystal Palace’s best-performing forward, has scored only 2 goals, some of which came from penalties. Eberechi Eze, the engine of the midfield, has been less effective this season, with only 1 goal and 0 assists to his name. However, his xG and xAG values (2.3 and 0.6) indicate that he creates more chances than he actually converts.
Liverpool’s Form
Liverpool is in much better form this season, with 5 wins and 1 loss in 6 matches. The team averages 2 goals per match, with Mohamed Salah and Luis Díaz in great shape. Salah has recorded 4 goals and 4 assists, further showcasing their strong attacking potential. Salah’s xG is 3.1, while his npxG (non-penalty expected goals) is 2.6, indicating that he is making the most of his chances.
Liverpool’s overall xG stands at 2.06, while their xGA (expected goals against) is just 0.75, showing that they excel not only in attack but also in defense. Alisson’s save percentage is 84.6%, making him one of the best goalkeepers in the league. With a reliable defense and efficient attackers, Liverpool is the favorite to win the match.
Injuries and Possible Lineups
Crystal Palace might be missing several key players for this match, and statistics show that injuries could weaken their defense considerably. Liverpool, on the other hand, is almost at full strength, which increases their chances of success.
Statistical Analysis
Crystal Palace’s attacking line has been underwhelming this season, scoring just 0.83 goals per game, while their matches have averaged 2.5 total goals. In contrast, Liverpool’s matches have averaged 3.67 goals. Palace concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game, while Liverpool allows just 0.33 goals per game.
Low and Medium Risk Betting Recommendations
Low Risk Tips:
- Liverpool Win – 70% probability (low risk)
- Liverpool’s attacking and defensive metrics are significantly stronger, and Palace’s current form and injuries reduce their chances.
Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – 60% probability (low risk)
- Liverpool’s matches average 3.67 goals, and Crystal Palace’s defense is not particularly solid.
Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards in the Match – 65% probability (low risk)
- Crystal Palace tends to commit more fouls, especially against stronger opponents.
Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Final Thoughts
Based on statistical analysis and expert opinions, it is clear that Liverpool is the strong favorite to win, while Crystal Palace will likely struggle to respond effectively to Liverpool’s attacks.