Club Brugge – Dortmund
EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 18, 2024
Club Brugge Analysis
Attacking Efficiency:
Club Brugge has performed well this season, especially at home. Their statistics show that the team averages 1.71 goals per match (based on non-penalty goals, npxG: 1.79), which indicates solid attacking performance. Key players like Andreas Skov Olsen, who has already scored three goals, and Gustaf Nilsson are effective in attack (xG: 2.8). Hans Vanaken also plays a significant role, with 2 goals, 2 assists, and impressive xG (1.7) and xA (0.6) metrics.
Defense and Goalkeeping:
The stability of the defense is well demonstrated by Simon Mignolet, who boasts a 79.2% save rate and has kept three clean sheets this season. Their xGA (7.5) shows that Club Brugge is capable of minimizing the opponent’s chances, and their conceded goals per match (0.86) is also commendable. In defense, Brandon Mechele stands out for his effective tackling and shot-blocking.
Creativity and Chance Creation:
In terms of creativity, Maxim De Cuyper (1.5 xA) and Andreas Skov Olsen (1.3 xA) are crucial players. The team has generated 13.1 xG so far, reflecting the volume and quality of their attacks.
Dortmund Analysis
Attacking Efficiency:
Dortmund’s goal-scoring has been mixed so far in the Bundesliga season. Their xG (4.9) and actual goals scored (6) show that they can create chances, but their finishing has not always been optimal. Karim Adeyemi and Jamie Gittens are the top scorers, with two goals each. Adeyemi’s xG is high (0.6 per match), and Donyell Malen also performs well (xG: 0.3).
Defense and Goalkeeping:
Gregor Kobel is a key figure in defense, with an 85.7% save rate. However, Dortmund’s defense has been average in some matches (conceding 2 goals per game), and they need to improve in preventing chances (xGA: 3.5). In defense, Niklas Süle and Waldemar Anton are solid, though they may struggle under heavy pressure.
Creativity and Chance Creation:
Pascal Groß and Julian Brandt are Dortmund’s creative engines, with high passing accuracy (over 87%) and key passes (Groß: 11, Brandt: 4) contributing to the team’s attacks. The team’s chance creation stats (75 SCA) are also impressive, particularly when considering the pressure from opponents.
Low-Risk Bets
- Both teams to score (probability: 65%): Both teams have strong attacking play, and there are players on both sides capable of capitalizing on their chances. Club Brugge is likely to score at home, while Dortmund remains dangerous even away.
Odds: 1.63 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- More than 3.5 yellow cards (probability: 60%): Given the importance of the match and the Champions League atmosphere, it is likely that the game will be intense. Both teams are prone to committing fouls, and both have aggressive players like Emre Can and Brandon Mechele.