EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 2 – October 1, 2024
Dortmund and Celtic: Statistical Data and Trends:
Dortmund’s Attacking Efficiency: Based on Dortmund’s recent matches, it is clear that their attacking strength is significant. They have scored 10 goals in three home games, with 11 of their total 18 goals scored in the second half. This shows that they are particularly dangerous in the latter stages of the match. According to xG (expected goals), Dortmund outperforms their expected goals, especially due to the form of Serhou Guirassy and Jamie Gittens.
Celtic’s European Form and Defense: While Celtic dominates their domestic league, they struggle in European away matches. They have won just one of their last 11 European away games and lost nine. Despite their attacking strength, as shown in their 5-1 victory against Slovan Bratislava, their defense is less solid, particularly in European matches. This was evident as they allowed more chances than their expected xGA (expected goals against) would suggest.
Expected Lineups and Key Players: On Dortmund’s side, Guirassy and Gittens are particularly dangerous. Guirassy has scored 42 goals in his last 53 Bundesliga matches, while Gittens, as a young talent, has been performing exceptionally well, as evidenced by his brace against Brugge. For Celtic, Kyogo Furuhashi and Daizen Maeda pose the biggest threats, especially Furuhashi, who posted a 1.6 xG in his most recent match.
Motivation and Psychological Factors: Dortmund will have strong support from their home crowd (the famous “Yellow Wall”), which can be a motivating factor, especially in the second half. On the other hand, while Celtic is also motivated, their poor away form and lack of European success are significant disadvantages.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Both Teams to Score:
- Justification: Both teams have strong attacking lines. Celtic’s in-form forwards, like Furuhashi and Maeda, are likely to score a goal. Meanwhile, Dortmund is especially dangerous at home, making both teams scoring a probable outcome.
- Probability: 70-72%.
Odds: 1.68 – Safe Kelly: 4%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match:
- Justification: Both teams play an attacking style, and the statistics show they often score more goals in matches. Dortmund is particularly effective at home, and Celtic’s offense could manage at least one goal.
- Probability: 70-72%.
Odds: 1.54 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards:
- Justification: The intensity of the match, especially in defensive situations, could lead to more fouls and yellow cards, particularly for Celtic, who tend to defend aggressively when playing away.
- Risk: Medium.
- Probability: 60%.