Match Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen – AC Milan
EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 2 – October 1, 2024
Key Statistical Analysis:
- Leverkusen’s Attacking Efficiency:
- Florian Wirtz, who has been directly involved in 24 goals in his last 26 European starts, could be a crucial factor. He is undoubtedly the most dangerous player Milan will be wary of.
- Leverkusen almost always scores at home; they have only failed to score in two of their last 60 home matches.
- Milan’s Defensive Issues:
- Milan has several key players injured or doubtful, including Davide Calabria and Marco Sportiello, which could further weaken their defense.
- Milan has struggled in recent Champions League outings, particularly away from home, where they rarely achieve good results. They have only secured one victory in their last eight away matches in the Champions League.
- Defensive Errors and Statistics:
- Milan conceded 11 shots on target in their previous match, indicating a significant defensive weakness.
- The team has shown inconsistent performances in the Champions League, with a 56% probability of losing according to statistics, while Leverkusen’s chances of winning are at 56.57%.
- Teams’ Motivation and Form:
- Leverkusen applies intense pressure on their opponents at home, and their current form is excellent. Under Xabi Alonso’s leadership, the team has built an effective attacking unit, which could be a major advantage against Milan’s weak defense.
- Milan comes into this match with two consecutive league victories but struggles on the international stage, especially away from home. Coach Paulo Fonseca is still trying to stabilize the team, but defensive mistakes remain a significant issue.
Tips Based on Risk Levels:
Low Risk:
- Bayer Leverkusen Win (56.57%): Based on the statistics, Leverkusen is more likely to win, and they are very strong at home.
- Risk Level: Low
Odds: 1.71 – Safe Kelly: 4%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (63.8%): Both teams have an attacking mindset, and the statistics suggest that more goals are likely.
- Risk Level: Low