PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal – Round 7
Statistical Analysis
AVS:
- AVS has only scored 6 goals in 6 matches, averaging 1 goal per game. Their xG (expected goals) value is 7.9, indicating that they have scored fewer goals than expected based on their chances. This suggests some underperformance in terms of finishing.
- Defensively, their performance is mixed. With 10 goals conceded, they have an average of 1.67 goals allowed per match. The opponents’ xG against them is 13.3, meaning that opponents have scored fewer goals than expected. This is a positive sign for their defensive efficiency, although the 1.67 goals conceded per match negatively impacts the overall picture.
- Among their players, a few have stood out: Nenê scored 2 goals in 3 matches, with a positive xG value of 1.0, indicating good finishing ability. John Mercado has also performed well, with 1 goal and 1 assist, and an xG of 0.9.
Farense:
- Farense’s season has been extremely weak so far, starting with 6 losses and only 2 goals scored while conceding 13, which gives them an average of 2.17 goals allowed per game. Their xG value is 4.7, showing they have scored even fewer goals than expected.
- Defensively, they are struggling, having conceded 13 goals, while the opponents’ xG against them is 14.1, indicating that opponents are taking advantage of their chances. Especially notable is their poor goalkeeping performance: Ricardo Velho has a 70.3% save rate, far below top-level standards.
- On the offensive side, issues persist: Tomané is the only player who has scored, but his xG is just 0.7. Their overall xG is low, reflecting poor finishing.
Human Analysis
The analysis highlights that both teams have struggled this season. AVS has not met expectations in finishing but shows some defensive stability. In contrast, Farense is completely out of form, lacking attacking power, and facing significant defensive problems. The human analysis also pointed out that Farense’s motivation and morale are low, with several key players injured or underperforming.
Low-Risk Bet Builder Tip:
- AVS win or draw (1X) + Under 3.5 goals – Based on the statistics, AVS appears to be the more stable team, especially at home, while Farense has shown nothing remarkable this season. Due to Farense’s poor form, AVS is unlikely to lose.
Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Low-Risk Tip:
- Under 10.5 corners – Both teams lack attacking spirit, leading to fewer corner opportunities. In previous matches, both teams have shown a tendency to produce a low number of corners.
Odds: 1.75 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Under 2.5 goals – Both teams have weak attacking power, and statistics suggest a low-scoring match. AVS has a tight defense, while Farense’s attacks are not dangerous.
Odds: 1.84 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Final Summary
Based on the analysis, the safest bet is on a low-scoring match and a draw or home win. The statistics and human analysis align with the conclusion that Farense’s current form is not enough to pose a serious challenge to AVS.