EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 19, 2024
Atlético Madrid Analysis:
Atlético Madrid started the La Liga season well, showing particularly strong defensive performance. According to statistics, they conceded only 2 goals in 5 matches and kept 4 clean sheets. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak has an 80% save percentage at the back. Defenders like Robin Le Normand and José María Giménez play significant roles in maintaining defensive stability. Atlético’s defense is especially strong at home, where they won 3-0 against Girona, allowing just 0.7 xG to the opponent. With their solid defense and minimal goals conceded, low-scoring matches are expected.
Offensively, Antoine Griezmann and Marcos Llorente are the most dangerous players. Griezmann has already scored 4 goals and provided 2 assists this season, while Llorente has contributed 2 goals. Based on xG, Atlético’s attacks often result in fewer goals than expected, but they still manage to capitalize on key opportunities.
RB Leipzig Analysis:
RB Leipzig has shown strong attacking play in the Bundesliga season. Loïs Openda has scored 2 goals, Kevin Kampl 1 goal, and Antonio Nusa 1 goal. Their total xG stands at 3.7, which indicates that their finishing is better than expected. Openda leads a potent attack, especially in fast counter-attacks. However, defensively, they may be vulnerable, having conceded 2 goals against Leverkusen and allowed the opponent 2.2 xG.
RB Leipzig’s defense is less stable, especially away from home. Players like David Raum and Castello Lukeba are active in winning the ball but struggle to effectively shut down attacks, particularly against a strong attacking team like Atlético Madrid.
Injuries and Expected Lineups:
Experts suggest that Atlético Madrid will field a strong starting XI, while Leipzig may have some key players dealing with injuries, weakening their defense. Atlético has no major injuries, allowing both defense and attack to play at full strength. Leipzig might see Gulácsi and Simakan return, but their performance is uncertain.
Motivation and Tactics:
Atlético Madrid is always highly motivated at home, especially in Champions League matches. Diego Simeone’s team is expected to play a more defensive, compact game, relying on counter-attacks, while RB Leipzig is likely to adopt a more attacking approach.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Atlético Madrid to win – Atlético Madrid is very strong at home, and their defense is excellent. Leipzig has not shown stable defense away, making an Atlético victory likely, especially given their stronger attack. Probability: 65%.