USA: MLS
Atlanta United
Based on the statistics of Atlanta United, the team’s form is mixed. In their last 10 matches, they have suffered several defeats and often failed to score. Their xG (expected goals) data indicates they frequently underperform in the attacking zone, particularly at home. Additionally, goalkeeper Brad Guzan’s performance, despite his experience, is inconsistent, with a 73% save percentage. However, it is important to note that Atlanta United relies on strong midfield play, where Thiago Almada and Brooks Lennon play significant roles in building attacks and making progressive passes. Almada has scored 6 goals this season, while being active in the attacking third with 0.39 goals per game, suggesting that he is a key figure in their attacks.
Inter Miami
Inter Miami is currently showing high-level attacking form, led by Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez. Suárez’s 17 goals and Messi’s 14 goals demonstrate exceptional performance, which could pose a significant threat to Atlanta’s defense. The team scores 2.29 goals per game, significantly higher than Atlanta’s average scoring rate. Besides Messi and Suárez, Jordi Alba and Sergio Busquets also play important roles in building attacks and contribute to the team’s overall xG. The team is unbeaten in 8 matches and is highly motivated for the rest of the season.
Analysis Summary
Inter Miami’s dominant attacking play, especially with Messi and Suárez, presents a serious threat to Atlanta United. Atlanta’s defense does not seem stable enough to stop these stars, especially considering Guzan’s fluctuating form. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s attack, led by Thiago Almada, could be dangerous, but it is less likely that they will score multiple goals in the match, particularly since Inter Miami’s goalkeeper Drake Callender has also been performing well.
Low-Risk Bets:
- Inter Miami Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0) (50-60%): Given Inter Miami’s strong attacking unit and the presence of Lionel Messi, there’s a strong chance they will secure the three points. They are in excellent form, while Atlanta’s defense is shaky.
Odds: 2.05 – Safe Kelly: 6%
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Inter Miami win + Both teams to score: Atlanta may manage to score a goal at home, particularly if Almada or Giorgos Giakoumakis finds their rhythm, while Inter Miami’s scoring ability is almost guaranteed.
Odds: 3.85 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Lionel Messi to score (60%): Messi remains in outstanding form and finds the net in most matches, especially if he gets his chances.
Odds: 1.96 – Safe Kelly: 1%
In conclusion, Inter Miami’s dominance makes their victory relatively low-risk, while multiple goals are expected in the match. Atlanta’s defense tends to make mistakes, which could lead to a high-scoring game, especially against an attacking team like Inter Miami.