SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 8 – September 29, 2024
Statistical Overview
Athletic Bilbao Statistics: Athletic Club boasts strong attacking statistics. Their standout player, Iñaki Williams, has been involved in 5 goals over 7 matches (1 goal, 4 assists), highlighting his importance in their offensive plays. Nico Williams also plays a crucial role in the attacking game, scoring 1 goal in 3.9 matches, and with an xG of 1.0, he could pose a significant threat. The team’s xG stands at 10.5 (npxG: 5.9), indicating that they are likely to create more scoring chances than their opponents. Additionally, they perform well defensively: their opponents’ xG was only 7.3, demonstrating that Athletic can minimize opposition attacks.
Sevilla Statistics: Sevilla has had a contradictory start to the season, and their statistics reflect inconsistency. The team has scored 5 goals in 7.0 matches and conceded 8, showing fluctuating performance in both defense and attack. Sevilla’s xG (8.6) is slightly lower than what they could have achieved, suggesting they are not fully capitalizing on their attacking opportunities. In defense, Ørjan Nyland’s 1.29 GA/90 and 72.4% save rate can provide stability, but it is not outstanding.
Key Factors and Player Comparison
- Attacking Efficiency: The speed and creativity of Iñaki Williams and Nico Williams on Athletic’s wings can generate effective attacks, especially considering Sevilla’s defensive weaknesses. Carmona and Pedrosa in Sevilla’s defense have yet to prove their ability to maintain stability this season, as evidenced by the 8 goals conceded.
- Injuries and Absentees: Both teams have several injured players that could affect starting lineups and tactical setups. For Athletic, Yeray Álvarez and Yuri Berchiche could be key players who provide defensive stability, while for Sevilla, Marcão and Nianzou could be absent, further weakening the defensive unit.
- Motivation and Form: Athletic Bilbao plays at home, which usually gives them an advantage. Moreover, they are in good form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches. Sevilla, on the other hand, has struggled to achieve results away from home, and the team’s morale does not seem to be particularly strong.
Low-Risk Bet Builder:
- Athletic Bilbao Draw or Win (1X) + Over 3.5 Yellow Cards – Athletic is unbeaten at home this season, and based on their form, they have a good chance of at least securing a draw. Sevilla players have already accumulated many yellow cards, and Athletic’s quick attacks will likely lead to more fouls.
Odds: 1.57 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- 1st Half Draw – Probability: 60% – Both teams tend to start slowly and often focus on defense in the first half.
Odds: 2.18 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Final Remarks
The match points towards Athletic Bilbao’s dominance, especially at home and based on their current statistics. Sevilla’s defense is weak, and their attack is not efficient enough to achieve reliable results. Athletic is in better form and is in a more favorable position to secure points at home.