EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 1, September 19, 2024
Atalanta Statistics and Analysis:
- Atalanta goal production and xG data: In the 2024-2025 season, Atalanta has scored 8 goals in 4 matches, 7 of which were from open play (npxG: 6.2). This indicates that the team’s attacking efficiency is close to expectations, with their 7.8 xG showing that their goal tally aligns with the number of quality chances created. The main scorer is Mateo Retegui, who has netted 4 goals from 3.1 xG, demonstrating his ability to convert opportunities efficiently.
- Defense and goalkeeping performance: Marco Carnesecchi has conceded 8 goals in 4 matches, with a save percentage of 46.7%, which is below optimal. Atalanta’s defense has struggled early in the season, particularly against stronger opposition (e.g., a 0-4 loss to Inter). This could be problematic against Arsenal, especially if the London side applies high pressure on the defense.
- Injuries and expected starters: Several key players in the Atalanta squad are questionable, which may affect both their attack and defense. Notably, the roles of Davide Zappacosta and Mario Pašalić could be critical in midfield and defense, as their experience can provide much-needed stability.
Arsenal Statistics and Analysis:
- Attacking efficiency: Arsenal has scored 6 goals in 4 Premier League matches, with 5 coming from open play (npxG: 5.0), indicating that the London team has also largely capitalized on their chances. Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka are the key players, both involved in 2 goals or assists. Saka has been particularly effective with his 1.5 xG + 1.4 xA, ranking among the best in Arsenal’s attack.
- Defense: Arsenal’s defense has been strong, conceding just 1 goal in 4 matches (0.25 goals per match), and goalkeeper David Raya boasts a 93.3% save success rate. William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães form a solid partnership in central defense, almost perfectly reading the opposition’s attacks.
- Possession and progression: Arsenal typically demonstrates lower possession, particularly in big matches (e.g., 37% possession against Tottenham), but their number of progressive passes and dribbles is very high. This means that Arsenal effectively uses counter-attacks and quick transitions, which could pose a threat to Atalanta’s defense.
Low-risk tip:
- Over 3.5 yellow cards – Atalanta tends to collect yellow cards, while Arsenal often slows down the opponent with tactical fouls, so there is a high likelihood of many fouls during the match.