🇺🇸 Edmonton Oilers – Vegas Golden Knights

USA: NHL

Detailed Analysis

Team Performance and Overall Statistics

1. Scoring Efficiency and Defense:
   • The Vegas Golden Knights average 4.5 goals per game, while the Oilers only score 2.38 goals per game. This is a significant difference, showcasing the offensive strength of the Knights.
   • In terms of defense, the Knights perform slightly better, allowing 3.08 goals per game compared to the Oilers’ 3.15.
2. Special Teams (PP and PK):
   • The Vegas Golden Knights excel with a 32.26% power-play efficiency, while the Oilers lag behind at just 14.71%.
   • In penalty killing, the Oilers (60%) fall significantly short compared to Vegas’s PK percentage (73.91%).
3. Corsi and Fenwick Statistics:
   • The Oilers have a 57.2% Corsi (5-on-5 play), while the Golden Knights hold a 47.4% Corsi. This indicates that the Oilers create more offensive opportunities, which could work to their advantage, especially at home.

Player Performance and Contribution

1. Edmonton Oilers:
   • Leon Draisaitl is performing exceptionally well (16 points, 9 goals), and without him, the Oilers’ offensive game would suffer greatly. His performance will be crucial, particularly with McDavid out.
   • Connor McDavid remains injured and is not expected to play. His absence could significantly impact the creativity in the offense, though the team could still remain competitive at home.
2. Vegas Golden Knights:
   • Mark Stone (20 points, 5 goals) and Jack Eichel (16 points, 3 goals) are playing exceptionally well, providing the dynamic edge for Vegas’s offense.
   • Ivan Barbashev is in excellent form, with a 30.4% shooting accuracy, making him likely to create dangerous opportunities.
   • In defense, Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore play key roles, contributing not only defensively but also with points on offense.

Goaltender Performance and Defense

1. Edmonton Oilers:
   • Stuart Skinner’s current save percentage (.881) is among the lowest, and the team’s goals-against average is high (3.31). This poses a serious concern, especially against the strong Vegas offense.
2. Vegas Golden Knights:
   • Ilya Samsonov is in better form, with a .906 save percentage and a 2.95 GAA. Adin Hill is also available; he has shown decent performance, though his .874 save percentage is weaker.

Low-Risk Tips

1. Vegas Win or Draw (X2) – (65% probability)
   • Vegas has a higher average point total and a stronger offensive presence, and despite weaker road performances, they can likely exploit the Oilers’ defensive weaknesses.
   Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 2%
2. Vegas Over 2.5 Goals – (65-70% probability)
   • Given the Oilers’ poor defense and goaltending, it’s likely that the Knights will score at least 3 goals, especially considering their current form and offensive power.
   Odds: 1.52 – Safe Kelly: 5%

Medium-Risk Tips

3. Over 5.5 Goals – (55-60% probability)
   • Although the Oilers’ offense is more subdued without McDavid, Draisaitl and Hyman could contribute, making a high-scoring game possible given their home advantage and the Knights’ mixed road form.
   Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 2%
4. Leon Draisaitl Goal – (50% probability)
   • Considering Draisaitl’s current form, he’s likely to be the Oilers’ main goal threat, increasing the chances of him scoring against Vegas.
   Odds: 2.30 – Safe Kelly: 1%

Interesting Factors

1. McDavid’s Absence – The absence of the Oilers’ top player significantly impacts the team’s performance, especially on offense.
2. Vegas’s Road Performance – While the Knights are excellent at home, their road record is mixed, which could make this a closer game, especially with the Oilers playing at home.
3. Goaltender Form – The Oilers have weak goaltending, while Vegas is stronger but not yet outstanding.

Overall, the statistics indicate that a Knights win and their over 3-goal total are low-risk bets, while Draisaitl’s points are also a secure option for bettors.