ENGLAND: Premier League – Matchday 13
Team Analysis
West Ham United:
- Formation and Results: West Ham has shown mixed form in their last six Premier League matches (WLWLDW), and their performance can improve with the advantage of playing at home.
- Attacking and Defensive Stats:
- Their average xG (expected goals) at home is 1.4.
- The defense could be a weak point, as their xGA (expected goals conceded) often exceeds 1.5.
- Key Player: Jarrod Bowen (3 goals, 3 assists).
Arsenal:
- Formation and Results: Arsenal has been more consistent (WLDLDW), and they have found momentum in their last two matches.
- Attacking and Defensive Stats:
- Their xG is strong, around 1.8.
- Their defense is tighter, with an xGA usually staying under 1.
- Key Player: Bukayo Saka (consistent goal and assist production), Kai Havertz (4 goals).
Player Performance
West Ham Players:
- Jarrod Bowen: High involvement, orchestrates many attacks. His xG is one of the best on the team.
- Lucas Paquetá: Creative in midfield but scores few goals.
- Defense: Often loses duels (e.g., Max Kilman with a 25% aerial duel win rate).
Arsenal Players:
- Kai Havertz: Extremely effective in recent matches, with a positive xG+/- stat.
- William Saliba: Strong in defense, with an aerial duel win rate above 48%.
- Bukayo Saka: Very dynamic, with multiple assists and goals this season.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Arsenal to win (59.69% chance):
- Arsenal is on a winning streak, with stronger statistics.
Odds: 1.47 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Over 3.5 cards:
- Matches between West Ham and Arsenal are physical, and cards are common.
Odds: 1.42 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations
- West Ham vs Arsenal: Arsenal has lost only twice in London derbies since 2022, which could boost their confidence.
- Home and Away Form: Arsenal has not won away since September 2024, but they have now gained momentum.
Conclusion
Arsenal enters the match as the stronger contender, but West Ham could cause an upset at home. When betting, it is worth focusing on an Arsenal win and the number of goals, taking into account the statistics and previous results between the two teams.