SPAIN: LaLiga – Round 13
Team Statistics (Comparison of Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano):
- Form:
- Villarreal: 3 losses and 2 draws in the last 5 matches (in poor form).
- Rayo Vallecano: 3 unbeaten matches, ending with a draw against Real Madrid.
- Goals and xG:
- Villarreal scores more goals at home (average of 1.5 goals/match), but their xGA (expected goals against) is high: 1.4/match.
- Rayo Vallecano shows solid defense away from home (only 6 goals conceded in 8 away matches).
- Possession:
- Villarreal: Averaging around 43-47% possession.
- Rayo Vallecano: Dominating possession in several matches (52-65%).
- Injuries and Suspensions:
- Villarreal: Key players missing such as Baena, Parejo, and Kiko.
- Rayo Vallecano: Raúl de Tomás is still missing, but despite this, they have been productive in attack in recent matches.
Key Player Statistics:
Villarreal:
- Ayoze Pérez: 10 goals, 2 assists. Key attacking player.
- Alex Baena: 4 goals, 5 assists, but his suspension reduces Villarreal’s chances.
Rayo Vallecano:
- Abdul Mumin: 2 goals, 1 assist as a defender, with solid defensive stats.
- Jorge de Frutos: 3 goals, 2 assists, active in attacks.
- Florian Lejeune: Stable defensive performance with a 63.6% aerial duel win rate.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bets:
- Under 3.5 goals in the match
- Explanation: Both teams focus on strong defense, with Rayo especially effective at limiting space away.
- Probability: 72%.
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 2%
- Rayo Vallecano +1 Asian Handicap (our bet wins if Rayo gets at least a draw, and we get a refund if they lose by 1 goal)
- Explanation: Villarreal’s poor form and missing key players reduce their chances, while Rayo comes into the match in positive form.
- Probability: 67%.
Odds: 1.54 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Rayo Vallecano to score (Over 0.5 Rayo goal)
- Explanation: Rayo has scored in their last 3 matches, while Villarreal’s defense is struggling.
- Probability: 71%.
Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 1%
Surprising Facts and Insights:
- Rayo Vallecano’s away defense is one of the best in La Liga (only 6 goals conceded), surpassing even Atlético Madrid.
- Villarreal has an average of 1.5 goals at home despite not dominating possession, but their form and suspensions make their victory uncertain.
- The absence of Alex Baena and Dani Parejo could significantly weaken Villarreal’s midfield stability.
Summary and Recommendations:
- Villarreal is under significant pressure, while Rayo Vallecano is in good form.
- Focus on goal and defensive trend-based bets.
- Safest tip: Under 3.5 goals.
- Most promising medium-risk bet: Rayo Vallecano to avoid defeat.
With these statistical insights and analysis, the above betting suggestions are well-founded and carry minimal risk.