Spanish La Liga, Round 3 – August 26, 2024
Based on the statistics of Villarreal and Celta Vigo, there are several important factors to consider for this match. Villarreal has started the season well, drawing against Atlético Madrid and securing a win against Sevilla. Among their players, Arnaut Danjuma has shown outstanding form, scoring two goals and producing a significant xG value (0.8), which highlights his attacking strength. On the other hand, Celta Vigo also had a strong start with two wins, where Iago Aspas played a crucial role, contributing to three goals and achieving a high xG (1.7).
Celta Vigo has a solid defense, especially with Carlos Dominguez and Damián Rodríguez, who perform reliably in defensive tasks. However, Villarreal’s defense has some weak points, particularly due to goalkeeper Diego Conde’s low save percentage (72.7%) and the high xG allowed by the defense (1.86).
Betting Tips:
Low-Risk Bet Builder:
- Over 1.5 goals + Over 3.5 cards (Probability: 65%)
- Odds: 1.85 – Kelly: 8%
- Combined Tip: Over 1.5 goals + Over 3.5 cards
- Card Statistics: Villarreal players have already received 6 yellow cards in the first two matches, while Celta Vigo players have also accumulated 6 cards. The match points to a tough contest, especially considering the tactical fouls and the tension between the two teams.
- Goal Statistics: Both teams have been relatively productive in their previous matches. Villarreal has scored 4 goals in their two matches, while Celta Vigo has scored 5. Based on expected goals (xG), both teams have the potential to score at least 2 goals.
Medium-Risk Tip:
2. Total goals: Over 2.5
- Odds: 1.82 – Kelly: 8%
- Medium Risk: Both teams tend to play offensively, and in their previous matches, three or more goals have often been scored. Based on the teams’ performances so far, this trend is likely to continue. Probability: 60%