VfL Bochum – Werder Bremen

GERMANY: Bundesliga – Round 13

Analysis

Team Performance

• VfL Bochum:
  • Terrible start to the season, winless in 2024-25, earning only 2 points from 36.
  • Defensive Issues: Goalkeeper Patrick Drewes conceded 33 goals, the most in the league.
  • Attacking Weaknesses: Forward Moritz Broschinski has failed to score despite six clear opportunities.
  • Form: Poor performance in the last six games (LLLDLL).
• Werder Bremen:
  • Moderate start to the season, but their away form is generally better than at home.
  • Attackers: Marvin Ducksch and Jens Stage (8 goals) are standout performers.
  • Defense: Two consecutive away losses, though previously they were stable.
  • Form: Mixed results (WDLWLD) but 19 goals this season, the best among bottom-half teams.

Key Players

• VfL Bochum:
  • Patrick Drewes: Despite conceding many goals, his save rate indicates several crucial stops.
  • Maximilian Wittek: Reliable defender who contributes to attacking plays.
• Werder Bremen:
  • Jens Stage: Midfielder with 5 goals, supports attacks effectively.
  • Marvin Ducksch: 3 goals and 5 assists, a key offensive player.

Interesting Statistical Patterns

• VfL Bochum has not kept a clean sheet in their last 28 matches.
• Werder Bremen’s away xG (expected goals): 1.4–1.6, better than Bochum’s home xG (0.7–0.9).

Betting Recommendations

Low Risk

1. Werder Bremen Draw No Bet:
   • Reason: Bochum’s poor form and Bremen’s better away performance.
   • Probability: ~70%.
   Odds: 1.64 – Kelly: 4%
2. Both Teams to Score (BTTS – Yes):
   • Reason: Bochum’s defensive frailties and Bremen’s attacking efficiency.
   • Probability: ~65%.
   Odds: 1.55 – Kelly: 2%

Medium Risk

1. Over 3.5 Cards:
   • Reason: Both teams play physically and this is a crucial match.
   • Probability: ~60%.
   Odds: 1.58 – Kelly: 2%

Surprising Facts

• Werder Bremen is on track for three consecutive away losses, which would be a first since 2023.
• Bochum has only one win in their last 20 head-to-head encounters.

Conclusion

Based on statistics and analysis, Werder Bremen appears to be the stronger side, particularly due to their attacking prowess and more stable play. Low-risk bets are the safer choices, but medium-risk options are also well-supported.