EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – 2nd Round – October 3, 2024
Twente Analysis
Twente’s strength lies in their ability to maintain a stable defense even against strong opponents, as evidenced by the point they secured at Old Trafford. Their xG (expected goals) against Manchester United was only 0.5, highlighting a weakness in creating offensive opportunities. However, the defense effectively managed to repel the English club’s attacks (xGA 1.3). Among key players, Sam Lammers stood out in the attack, scoring 1 goal and generating 0.32 xG.
In defense, the performances of Mees Hilgers and Bart van Rooij are noteworthy. Both players exhibited high passing accuracy and stable defense, with Hilgers boasting a 91.8% pass completion rate and 3 successful tackles. However, there are some deficiencies in their attacking efficiency, as the team registered few shots on target, indicating a lack of effectiveness in the final third.
Fenerbahce Statistical Analysis
Fenerbahce excels in narrow victories, as demonstrated by their 2-1 win against Union SG. The team’s xG was 1.6, showing their ability to create scoring chances even when their defense remains vulnerable (xGA 2.1). Players like Caglar Söyüncü and Edin Džeko play pivotal roles in both attack and defense. Söyüncü scored 1 goal and recorded 0.22 xG, while Džeko supported the attack effectively in the previous match.
Defensively, however, Fenerbahce appears vulnerable, especially on the flanks, where Oosterwolde and Müldür’s defending showed weaker accuracy. For instance, Oosterwolde’s pass completion rate was only 68.2%, which could pose an issue, particularly against a well-organized Twente.
Key Factors and Motivation
Both teams are highly motivated. Twente is playing at home and is confident following their draw against Manchester United. For Fenerbahce, international success is a priority under Mourinho, especially after a loss against Galatasaray. Experts predict that Fenerbahce might clinch a narrow victory, but Twente’s strong home performance and stable defense suggest a challenging match ahead.
Low-Risk Betting Tips:
- Fenerbahce Win or Draw (X2) + Over 3.5 Yellow Cards – Fenerbahce has stronger international experience, and Mourinho’s motivation adds to their strength. A double chance bet is a safer option.
Odds: 1.87 – Safe Kelly: 2%
- Both Teams to Score (55.18%) – Low Risk – Both teams have offensive potential, and while Twente has a stable defense, Fenerbahce’s attacking line is expected to score.