France – Ligue 1 – Round 3, August 31, 2024
Detailed Analysis
In the detailed analysis of the upcoming match between Toulouse and Marseille, it’s important to consider the performance of both teams, individual player statistics, and tactical analyses. Based on this data and expert analysis, several key findings can be made that will help in developing betting tips.
Statistical Analysis:
Toulouse Statistics:
- Defensive Performance: Toulouse has defended well so far, conceding only one goal in two matches, which translates to 0.50 GA/90. Goalkeeper Guillaume Restes has an 80% save rate, indicating a strong defensive line.
- Attacking Performance: The attacking play has been less effective, with only two goals scored, both by Shavy Babicka and Yann Gboho. Their xG (1.34) suggests they could have scored more if they had been more efficient in converting chances.
- Passing Play: Toulouse’s passing accuracy is good at 77.9%, indicating stable ball possession.
Marseille Statistics:
- Attacking Efficiency: Marseille’s attack is outstanding, with seven goals in two matches, led by Mason Greenwood’s three goals. Their xG of 5.4 indicates that their attacks are efficient and dangerous.
- Defense: Their defense has been mixed, conceding three goals, but goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli’s 70% save rate shows there is room for improvement in their defense.
- Ball Possession and Passing Play: Marseille dominated both of their matches with 66% ball possession and 87.7% passing accuracy, indicating excellent positional play.
Expert Analysis:
Experts highlight that Marseille’s attacking potential is extremely high, especially through Greenwood and Harit, who are both capable of creating chances and scoring. However, they also pointed out that the defense is not yet fully coordinated, which could create opportunities for Toulouse.
Suggestions for Bettors:
Low-Risk Tip:
- Marseille Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Odds: 1.42 – Kelly: 8%
- Justification: Betting on Marseille with the option to get your stake back in the event of a draw offers a good risk/reward ratio. With a 65% chance of winning and odds of 1.42, this bet provides a balanced opportunity.
- Probability: 70%
- Marseille to Win (Medium Risk)
- Odds: 1.93 – Kelly: 4%
- Justification: Given Marseille’s strong attacking line and Toulouse’s weaker offensive efficiency, Marseille is likely to secure the victory. Based on their xG and current performance, they are expected to score more goals than Toulouse.
- Probability: ~65%