EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 3
Tottenham Analysis:
Tottenham has shown strong form in the Europa League so far, securing two wins in the group stage—a 3-0 victory against Qarabağ and a 2-1 win over Ferencváros. Based on xG (expected goals), Tottenham’s attacking activity has been balanced, with 1.4 xG in the first game and 1.2 xG in the second. This indicates that their attack is effective, particularly with standout performances from players like Pape Matar Sarr and Brennan Johnson, who have contributed with both goals and assists to the team’s success.
From a defensive perspective, Tottenham has also performed well, conceding just 1 goal across the two matches, while their opponents’ expected goals were 2.2 xGA (Qarabağ) and 1.3 xGA (Ferencváros). This underperformance by their opponents is largely due to goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario’s exceptional 90% save rate.
AZ Alkmaar Analysis:
AZ Alkmaar has played two matches in the Europa League so far, winning 3-2 against Elfsborg but losing 0-2 to Athletic Bilbao. It is noteworthy that AZ Alkmaar scored 3 goals, 2 of which were attributed to Ruben van Bommel, who played particularly well in the attacking third. His performance will be key to AZ’s offensive efforts.
Defensively, however, AZ Alkmaar has some weaknesses, conceding 4 goals in two games, and their defense has shown signs of fragility (1.4 xGA against Athletic Bilbao and 0.1 xGA against Elfsborg). Goalkeeper Rome-Jayden Owusu-Oduro’s 55.6% save rate is not particularly convincing, and he has struggled to prevent critical chances in previous matches.
Motivation and Tactical Considerations:
Tottenham plays at home, where they remain unbeaten in the Europa League, a significant advantage for them. AZ Alkmaar has struggled to assert themselves away from home, particularly in their weak attacking performance against Bilbao. Tottenham’s technical players, such as James Maddison and Son Heung-min, could play decisive roles.
In terms of motivation, Tottenham is keen to continue dominating their group, while AZ Alkmaar’s struggles against Bilbao could pose a psychological disadvantage.
Betting Tips (Low and Medium Risk):
Low Risk:
- Tottenham Win – Tottenham is unbeaten at home, and based on statistical data and expert opinions, they are a more stable and effective team. AZ Alkmaar’s defensive weaknesses and poor away form make this a low-risk bet.
- Probability: 70%
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 3%
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match – Given Tottenham’s attacking strength and AZ Alkmaar’s defensive frailties, it’s likely there will be more than 2.5 goals scored in this match.
- Probability: 65%
Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Conclusion:
The match is expected to be dominated by Tottenham, particularly at home. With AZ Alkmaar’s defensive shortcomings and Tottenham’s attacking efficiency, a low-risk betting option is a Tottenham win.