Sunderland – Leeds United

ENGLAND: Championship – Round 9 – October 4, 2024

Sunderland

Sunderland has been having a strong season so far in the Championship, considering both their offensive and defensive performance. Out of their last eight matches, they have won six, indicating positive form. Sunderland’s key statistics are as follows:

1. Offense: They have scored 15 goals this season, averaging 1.87 goals per match. The biggest attacking threats include Patrick Roberts, who has contributed to 4 goals (1 goal, 3 assists), and Eliezer Mayenda, who has directly been involved in 4 goals. Additionally, the team has produced 2.34 xG per match, suggesting that they are likely to score more goals than they have currently.
2. Defense: Sunderland’s defense has also been noteworthy. They have conceded only 6 goals, with a 0.75 GA/90 ratio. Goalkeeper Anthony Patterson’s 85.2% save rate is particularly impressive. Furthermore, the team has kept 5 clean sheets, highlighting their defensive stability.
3. Disciplinary Statistics: Sunderland has received 17 yellow cards, which is relatively high. This could be a risk, especially in a tight, intense match like the one against Leeds.

Leeds United

Leeds United has also performed well in the Championship season, though some of their results have been inconsistent. Statistically, the team has balanced offensive and defensive capabilities:

1. Offense: Leeds has scored 13 goals in 8 matches, averaging 1.62 goals per match. The standout players are Wilfried Gnonto, who has been involved in 4 goals, and Joël Piroe, who has also directly contributed to 4 goals. The team’s xG is 1.67, which is close to their actual number of goals.
2. Defense: Leeds’ defense is stable, having conceded only 5 goals, which translates to a 0.62 GA/90 ratio. Goalkeeper Illan Meslier’s 82.4% save rate is also commendable. Additionally, Leeds has recorded 5 clean sheets, reflecting their defensive strength.
3. Disciplinary Statistics: Leeds has also received a high number of yellow cards (19), which poses a similar risk as for Sunderland.

Related Points and Trends

• Scoring Trends: Both teams score around 1.5 goals per match, indicating that a tight game with few goals is expected. Sunderland’s wingers and Leeds’ strikers are both efficient in front of goal.
• Defensive Stability: Both teams defend well, and their goalkeepers perform excellently. This suggests that a low-scoring match is likely, especially if the teams avoid defensive errors.
• Yellow Cards and Fouls: Both teams are prone to rough play, as shown by the high number of yellow cards. This could be a risk factor, as the match may see many fouls, increasing the likelihood of more cards.

Risk Assessment and Betting Tips

The following tips are based on statistical analysis and human insights, considering the risk factors.

Low-Risk Tips:

1. Under 2.5 Goals in the Match – (Low Risk): Both teams have solid defenses, and statistically, low-scoring games are expected. Sunderland has a 0.75 GA/90, while Leeds has a 0.62 GA/90, making it likely that few goals will be scored.
   • Probability: 65%

Odds: 1.77 – Safe Kelly: 1%

2. Over 4.5 Yellow Cards – (Medium Risk): Both teams are prone to fouls, and both have received many yellow cards. The statistics suggest that the number of yellow cards will exceed 4.5.
   • Probability: 60%

Odds: 1.63 – Safe Kelly: 2%

Summary

A tight, low-scoring match is expected between Sunderland and Leeds, with defensive performances and goalkeeping likely to dominate. Lower-risk bets focus more on the number of goals and yellow cards, while medium-risk tips are based on goalkeeping performance and disciplinary statistics.