Sturm Graz – Girona

EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 5

Team and Player Statistics Analysis

Sturm Graz

• European Performance:
  • Sturm Graz has lost all four of their Champions League matches, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 6.
  • Average possession: 39%, indicating limited ability to build attacks.
  • The xG (expected goals) has been between 0.5–0.7 per match, indicating low attacking potential.
• Home Form:
  • The team has won four of their last six home games, but has been unable to secure convincing results at home in the Champions League.
• Key Players:
  • Otar Kiteishvili and Mika Biereth are important figures, but their xG statistics are weak.
  • On the defensive side, Jusuf Gazibegović and Emanuel Aiwu provide solid performances, but their success rate in duels is low (e.g., Aiwu: 58.3%).

Girona

• European Performance:
  • They have scored 4 goals and conceded 8 in their four Champions League matches.
  • Their xG performance is more stable than Sturm Graz’s, with more than 1.0 xG per match.
• Away Form:
  • Out of 10 away matches, they have recorded five losses and two draws, indicating weak away form.
• Key Players:
  • Miguel Gutiérrez has outstanding attacking potential from the defender position.
  • Donny van de Beek’s creative play is crucial, with a positive xG+/- rating (+0.16).

Surprising Findings

1. Sturm Graz’s low xG performance severely limits their goal-scoring opportunities, while Girona is more vulnerable due to their weak away defense.
2. Miguel Gutiérrez’s attacking activity as a defender is outstanding and could create unexpected situations for Sturm Graz.

Betting Recommendations

Low Risk Bet

1. Under 3.5 goals in the match (Probability: 65.23%)
   • Both teams struggle to score, with Sturm Graz having a low home goal average, and Girona is not a dominant attacking side away from home.

Odds: 1.44 – Kelly: 2%

Medium Risk Bets

2. Both teams to score (Probability: 59.21%)
   • Girona’s attack is creative, while Sturm Graz may be able to score a goal at home.

Odds: 1.65 – Kelly: 1%

3. Girona to return stake in case of a draw (Probability: 65.99%)
   • Girona comes as the stronger team, but their away performance must be considered.

Odds: 1.56 – Kelly: 1%

Interesting Data

• Sturm Graz has lost their last six Champions League matches at the Worthersee Stadium.
• Girona’s attackers are versatile, but their defense could be weaker due to Arnau Martinez’s suspension.

This analysis is based primarily on statistical data, supplemented by the insights of analysts. The match is expected to be close, with minimal goals.