BRAZIL: Serie A – Round 30
Sao Paulo Statistics
Sao Paulo belongs to the mid-table range of Brazil’s Série A and has shown balanced performance this season. The team has an average goal value (xG) of 1.14 per match, while their opponents have recorded an xGA of 0.85 against them. This indicates that Sao Paulo has reliable defense and creates more scoring opportunities per game than their opponents.
Among their key players, Jonathan Calleri and Lucas Moura stand out, each having scored 5 and 6 goals respectively, actively contributing to the attacks. They are also strong in passing play, with an accuracy of 84.7%, which indicates stable buildup play. Based on their xG data, their attackers are capable of finishing off chances, which is a strength for the team.
However, the team is sometimes prone to losses in certain matches, especially when facing organized defenses. Considering injuries, their current squad allows them to field key players like Calleri and Luciano, which enhances their attacking potential.
Vasco Da Gama Statistics
Vasco Da Gama has shown weak performance throughout the season, especially away from home. Their xG (0.88) and xGA (1.43) suggest that they concede far more chances to their opponents than they create themselves. The team’s top scorer is Pablo Vegetti, who has netted 9 goals, and while he poses a threat, their attacks often lack effectiveness.
The team commits many defensive errors, which is clearly reflected in their xGA. According to experts, their motivation might be lower, as they are close to the relegation zone and are playing under psychological pressure. In past matches, they have received many yellow cards, which also indicates that the team is under tension.
Motivation and Form
Sao Paulo’s current situation is better than Vasco Da Gama’s, and they generally play confidently at home. Vasco Da Gama has been extremely weak away from home (they have only collected a few points as visitors), which is a disadvantage for them in this match. Based on statistical data and expert analysis, Sao Paulo is expected to dominate the match.
Tips and Risk Levels
Low-Risk Tip:
- Sao Paulo win (Probability: 60%)
Sao Paulo, playing at home, is in better form, and the statistics back this up. They produce high xG and are solid in defense, while Vasco Da Gama struggles on the road.
Odds: 1.66 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Tip:
- Sao Paulo over 5.5 corners (Probability: 60%)
The data shows that Sao Paulo’s attacking style often leads to corners, and Vasco’s weak defense may also contribute to this.
Odds: 1.60 – Safe Kelly: 1%
Summary
Sao Paulo is confident at home, and the statistical data from this season suggests that their attacking play is more effective than that of Vasco Da Gama. The visitors have performed poorly away from home, and experts believe they are likely playing under mental and physical pressure, which increases Sao Paulo’s chances of winning. The match will likely feature fewer goals, and an aggressive style of play is not expected.