UEFA Super Cup Match, August 14, 2024, 21:00 (CET)
The analysis of the UEFA Super Cup match between Real Madrid and Atalanta BC includes several important aspects and data, derived from both statistical analyses and expert predictions. Below, I will examine these data in detail to provide well-founded tips for the match.
Statistical Analysis
Available statistical data suggest that Real Madrid has a 41.04% chance of winning, while Atalanta BC has a 34.87% chance, and a draw stands at 24.1%. The most likely result is a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid (with an 8.77% probability), followed by a 1-0 (7.64%) and a 2-0 (6.07%) win. The most likely scenario for an Atalanta victory is a 1-2 result, with a 7.99% probability.
Both teams are likely to score, with the “both teams to score” event having a probability of 60.81%, making it a strong statistical tip. The probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match is 58.42%, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. However, the probability of fewer than 3.5 goals is 63.98%, indicating that the total number of goals is expected to be between 2 and 3.
Teams’ Form and Expert Analysis
Real Madrid has recorded two wins, two draws, and two losses in their last six matches, indicating mixed form. Their last match saw them win 2-1 against Chelsea, which is a positive sign. Atalanta’s form is weaker, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. They were defeated 3-0 by St. Pauli in their last game, reflecting their poor form.
Atalanta is missing several key players, such as Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini, which poses a significant disadvantage. On the other hand, Real Madrid also has a few absences, including David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga, but the team’s depth and new signings, like Kylian Mbappé, are likely to compensate for these losses.
Experts highlight that Real Madrid possesses incredible attacking potential, especially with the addition of Mbappé, while Atalanta, despite their poor pre-season results, should not be underestimated due to their strong performances in big games.
Motivation and Teams’ Situation
This match is of great importance for Real Madrid, as they have the chance to win another trophy, and Mbappé’s debut is also significant. For Atalanta, this is a historic match, as they are making their first appearance in the UEFA Super Cup, providing them with extraordinary motivation.
Tips by Risk Category
Low-risk tips:
- Both teams to score – Probability: 60.81%, 1.68x, Kelly: 37.48%
- This tip is low-risk as both teams have strong attacking units, and statistically, it is highly likely that both sides will score.
- Over 2.5 goals – Probability: 58.42%, 1.58x, Kelly: 32.10%
- Based on the statistics, it is likely that at least three goals will be scored, especially in a match where both teams are attack-minded.
Medium-risk tips:
- Real Madrid win – Probability: 41.04%, 1.53x, Kelly: 2.5%
- While a Real Madrid win is the most likely outcome, Atalanta could be a dangerous opponent, making this tip medium-risk.
Summary
Based on statistics and expert analysis, the most reliable tips are “Both teams to score” and “Over 2.5 goals”. A Real Madrid victory is also likely but carries slightly higher risk due to unpredictable factors, such as Atalanta’s impressive performances in Europe. Despite Atalanta’s injuries and poor form, they should not be completely ruled out, but Real Madrid’s stronger attack and experience are likely to be sufficient for victory.