SPAIN: LaLiga – Matchday 17
⚽ Team and Player Statistics Analysis
Rayo Vallecano Team Statistics
- Defense:
- Goals conceded: 16 goals in 15 matches (1.06 goals/match).
- xGA (expected goals conceded): Around 1.1, indicating solid defense.
- Home performance: 8 points from 7 home matches (weak home form).
- Attack:
- Goals scored: 15 goals in 15 matches (1.0 goal/match).
- xG (expected goals): Frequently under 1, indicating low attacking efficiency.
- Key attackers: Jorge de Frutos (3 goals, 1 assist) and Randy Nteka are key figures.
Real Madrid Team Statistics
- Defense:
- Goals conceded: 13 goals in 16 matches (0.81 goals/match).
- Away point loss: 4 points dropped in 8 away matches.
- Attack:
- Goals scored: 34 goals in 16 matches (2.13 goals/match).
- Key players: Vinícius Júnior (8 goals, 5 assists), Kylian Mbappé (9 goals).
- Injuries: Mbappé and Carvajal missing, potentially weakening the attack.
📊 Statistical Insights
- Aerial Duels: Rayo Vallecano’s defenders have a weak aerial duel record (around 35% success).
- Expected Goals Against (xGA): Real Madrid’s defense is solid, with an expected goals conceded figure below 1 even away.
🔍 Betting Tips
🟢 Low-Risk Bet
- Real Madrid Win (1X2)
- Probability: 48.75%
- Explanation: Real Madrid is in better form, and although they occasionally drop points away, Rayo Vallecano’s weak home form makes a Madrid victory likely.
Odds: 1.62 – Kelly: 2%
🟡 Medium-Risk Bet
- Under 3.5 goals
- Probability: 73.22%
- Explanation: Rayo Vallecano struggles to score, and Real Madrid’s attack could be less effective due to Mbappé’s absence.
Odds: 1.40 – Kelly: 1%
📌 Observations
- Unexpected Form: Rayo Vallecano drew twice with Real Madrid last season.
- Injuries: Mbappé and several key players’ absences could weaken Real Madrid’s attack.
- Strong Defense: Both teams have strong defenses, making a low-scoring match likely.
Based on this, focusing on low-scoring matches and a close Real Madrid win is advisable.