EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 3
Qarabag Statistics
Qarabag’s challenging season is reflected in the data from recent matches. Based on xG (expected goals), they have produced an average of 1.56 xG per game, while their opponents have generated an average of 1.11 xG against them. However, their conversion rate has not been efficient, as they have only scored 1 goal so far. The gap between expected and actual goals (-2.1) indicates weak attacking form.
Defensively, they have collected 2 yellow cards in two matches, and their opponents have averaged 23 tackling attempts per match. Qarabag has made relatively few defensive errors, showing stability but with mediocre defensive statistics.
Among their players, Juninho stands out, having scored 1 goal and being the team’s top xG producer (1.1). Abdellah Zoubir was also active with 0.4 xG and 0.3 xAG, but his chances did not yield goals.
Ajax Statistics
Ajax has shown much better finishing. Their xG (expected goals) stands at 1.87, indicating that their attacks are effective and well-organized. They have scored 5 goals so far in the Europa League, and with an xGA of 0.87, they have displayed strong defensive stability.
Mika Godts has scored two goals, with an xG of 2, showcasing his attacking efficiency. Kenneth Taylor contributed with 1 goal and a smaller, yet efficient xG of 0.08. Defensively, Devyne Rensch and Josip Šutalo have been solid, both producing high tackle rates.
Team Comparison
Ajax’s attacking play is much more effective, especially in terms of goal-scoring, while Qarabag’s weak offensive performance and lackluster defense could prove to be a disadvantage. Playing at home may give Qarabag a motivational boost, but Ajax arrives in better form with stronger players.
Players and Injuries
According to expert analysis, some key players may be missing from both teams, but Qarabag faces greater risk from injuries, particularly in defense.
Low-Risk Tips
- Ajax draw no bet (Asian handicap 0) – Ajax’s attacking line is much stronger than Qarabag’s, and the defensive weaknesses of the opponent offer an additional advantage. Ajax is motivated and could secure a confident win based on their statistics so far. (65% probability)
Odds: 1.65 – Safe Kelly: 6%
- Ajax to win more corners – Ajax is expected to win more corners than Qarabag. Based on their attacking style, Ajax will likely create multiple opportunities, increasing the chance of winning corners. (65% probability)
Odds: 2.05 – Safe Kelly: 6%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Ajax to score more than 1.5 goals – Given Ajax’s current form and Qarabag’s defensive statistics, this seems realistic. Based on Ajax’s expected goals, it’s likely they will score at least two goals. (60% probability)
Odds: 1.82 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Conclusion
Ajax holds the advantage in both attacking and defensive statistics, while Qarabag’s weak offense leaves them with little chance of scoring. Low-risk betting options focus on Ajax’s attacking strength and corner opportunities.