EUROPE: Champions League – Group Stage – Round 8
Team Statistics
PSV Eindhoven:
- Formations: Primarily use 4-3-3 and occasionally 4-2-3-1, which allows for a more attacking style of play, especially at home, where ball possession exceeds 60%.
- Goal Difference and Expected Goals (xG): Positive xG in recent matches, but defensive lapses have led to higher xGA values (e.g., 2.5 during one defeat).
- Home Dominance: Only one loss in the last 53 home matches.
Liverpool:
- Formations: Frequently switch between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, providing tactical flexibility.
- Defense: Expected Goals Against (xGA) consistently lower than opponents, reflecting organized defensive play.
- Away Success: 80% win rate in Champions League away games in recent years.
Player Statistics
PSV Eindhoven:
- Luuk de Jong: Averaging 6.6 match minutes per game, with two goals and significant attacking experience. Key player in European matches.
- Ryan Flamingo: Reliable defensive performance (70% aerial duel win rate) but unavailable due to a red card.
- Goalkeeper Performance: Walter Benítez has conceded only 6 goals despite an expected 9.8 goals against.
Liverpool:
- Mohamed Salah: Three goals and four assists in seven matches, demonstrating excellent creativity and finishing.
- Virgil van Dijk: 78.6% aerial duel win rate, a cornerstone of the defense.
- Luis Díaz: Balanced attacking play, with three goals and a 1.34 xG+/- metric.
Key Points in Expert Analysis
- PSV’s Home Strength: Rarely lose at home, making it challenging for Liverpool to break through their defense.
- Liverpool’s Rotation: Arne Slot is considering rotation due to the packed schedule, which might impact performance.
Low-Risk Tips:
- Over 2.5 Goals in the Match (72% Probability):
- Both teams have consistently surpassed this threshold in recent matches.
- Both Teams to Score (71% Probability):
- Given both teams’ attacking styles, this is highly likely.
Interesting Facts
- Liverpool’s Record: Never lost to PSV, giving them a psychological edge.
- PSV’s Home Defensive Stability: Only one loss in the last 53 home matches.
- Salah’s Goal Record: Closing in on 50 European goals, providing motivation.