Europa League Qualifier, August 8, 2024
Analysis
The first match of the third round of the Europa League qualifiers between Panathinaikos and Ajax promises to be an exciting encounter, with many factors indicating a fairly balanced contest.
Statistical Analysis
Form and Statistics
- Panathinaikos: Out of their last six matches, they have three wins, one draw, and two losses (LLDWWW). In the Europa League, they have two wins (WW), with their latest match being a 4-0 victory against Botev Plovdiv. Notably, Alexander Jeremejeff scored three goals in the two matches.
- Ajax: They have won all of their last six matches (WWWWWW), including two Europa League wins (WW). Their latest match was a 3-1 victory against FK Vojvodina. Ajax displays stable and effective form, suggesting confidence within the team.
Data and Probabilities
- Panathinaikos win: 34.47%
- Ajax win: 42.22%
- Draw: 23.31%
- Both teams to score: 63.59%
- Over 2.5 goals: 62.09%
- Under 2.5 goals: 37.91%
Likely Results
- Panathinaikos win: Most likely result 2-1 (8.79%), followed by 1-0 (6.87%) and 2-0 (5.82%).
- Ajax win: Most likely result 1-2 (7.85%), followed by 0-1 (6.14%) and 0-2 (4.64%).
- Draw: Most likely result 1-1 (10.38%).
Expert Analysis
The analysis shows that Panathinaikos finished fourth in the Greek Super League last season and made a strong start in the Europa League qualifiers. Under the new coach, Diego Alonso, the team’s goal is to reach the group stage. Swedish forward Alexander Jeremejeff’s form could be crucial for the match.
Ajax’s new coach, Francesco Farioli, who arrived from Nice, is trying to rebuild the team after a difficult season. Ajax is currently in impressive form, with several key players returning from injuries. The team is unbeaten in six matches and has shown effective attacking play recently.
Players and Expected Line-ups
Panathinaikos:
- Key players: Alexander Jeremejeff, Adam Gnezda Cerin.
- Expected line-up: Dragowski; Baldock, Ingason, Jedvaj, Mladenovic; Cerin, Arao; Tete, Bakasetas, Djuricic; Jeremejeff.
Ajax:
- Key players: Brian Brobbey, Steven Bergwijn, Chuba Akpom.
- Expected line-up: Pasveer; Rensch, Sutalo, Baas, Hato; Taylor, Henderson, Van den Boomen; Ramsussen, Akpom, Berghuis.
Suggestions
Low-Risk Bets:
- Over 1.5 goals (1.23x) – Given the expected intensity and both teams’ attacking play, it is likely that at least 2 goals will be scored. (Low risk)
- Panathinaikos win or draw (Double Chance) (1.36x) – Low risk: Based on data and expert analysis, Panathinaikos may be strong at home. Although Ajax is in good form, away games can be more challenging. The Double Chance option covers both a win and a draw, increasing security.
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Draw (3.75x) – According to probabilities and expert opinions, a balanced match is expected, which could end in a draw. (Medium risk)
- Both teams to score (1.60x) – Based on statistics and the current form of both teams, it is likely that both will score. (Medium risk)
Analysis and Trends
Based on statistical data and expert analysis, the match appears balanced, with both teams having a chance to win. Ajax is in stable and strong form, while Panathinaikos can be dangerous at home. The likelihood of both teams scoring is high, consistent with their attacking play and recent results. A draw and over 1.5 goals are also likely outcomes, considering the close competition and attacking play of both teams.