Brazilian match, July 28, 2024, 01:00 (CET)
Palmeiras and Vitória Analysis and Prediction
Palmeiras Statistical Analysis
Offense
Palmeiras’ offensive play is outstanding, having scored 27 goals in 19 matches, averaging 1.42 goals per game. The team’s xG (expected goals) is 32.2, indicating that their attack is effective and they score more goals than expected based on their chances. Estevão (5 goals) and José López (5 goals) stand out among the attackers.
Defense
Their defense is also stable, conceding only 14 goals, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 19.2. Goalkeeper Wéverton is in excellent form with an 80.9% save rate and 9 clean sheets. Central defender Gustavo Gómez is a key figure, having played in 11 matches, and the team’s performance significantly improves when he is on the field.
Style of Play and Tactics
Palmeiras typically plays in a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-3 formation. Midfielders Raphael Veiga and Aníbal Moreno dominate in midfield, effective in both directions. Veiga is particularly important in building attacks, with a 5.62 SCA90 (shot-creating actions per 90 minutes) rating.
Vitória Statistical Analysis
Offense
Vitória’s offensive play is less effective, having scored only 19 goals in 19 matches, averaging 1 goal per game. Their xG is 21.4, indicating that the team struggles to convert chances. Willian (5 goals) and Alerrandro (3 goals) are the team’s most dangerous attackers.
Defense
Their defense is weaker, conceding 27 goals, with an xGA of 26.6. Goalkeeper Lucas Arcanjo has an 80.9% save rate, but the defense is often permeable, as indicated by the high number of goals conceded.
Style of Play and Tactics
Vitória typically plays in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation, but the transition between midfield and defense is often not quick and effective. Midfielders Matheusinho and Lucas Esteves are the most active in attacks.
Injuries and Expected Lineups
Expected lineups and injuries can significantly influence the match outcome. For Palmeiras, Wéverton, Gustavo Gómez, and Raphael Veiga are key players, while for Vitória, the presence of Willian and Alerrandro is critical.
Analysis and Correlations
Key Players
For Palmeiras, Raphael Veiga and Estevão can be crucial in the match, while for Vitória, the performance of Willian and Matheusinho will be decisive.
Formations and Strategy
Palmeiras is likely to dominate the match in midfield, thanks to their well-organized 4-2-3-1 formation. Vitória is likely to focus on defense and attempt to build on quick counterattacks.
Motivation
Palmeiras is higher in the league and has been performing better recently, increasing their motivation. For Vitória, avoiding relegation is the main goal, which also provides strong motivation.
Betting Tips Based on Risk
Low Risk
- Palmeiras win (1.34x) – Low risk. Palmeiras is in dominant form, while Vitória struggles with positioning and defense.
Medium Risk
- Vitória less than 1.5 goals (1.13x) – Medium risk. Vitória’s offensive play is not very effective, and Palmeiras’ defense is strong.
- Less than 11.5 corners (1.56x) – Both teams tend to focus on midfield play. (Medium risk)
- José López to score anytime (Medium Risk) (2.45x) – López effectively capitalizes on his chances, and given Vitória’s defensive issues, he has a good chance of scoring. His xG is high, further enhancing his scoring potential.
Summary
Palmeiras has strong offensive and defensive statistics, while Vitória struggles in both areas. The prediction indicates a likely Palmeiras victory. The suggested low and medium-risk bets reflect Palmeiras’ dominance, particularly their defensive capabilities and Vitória’s weaker offensive play.