30/05/2024 midnight, Central European Time, Copa Libertadores
The following analysis is based on statistics and expert analysis of today’s match between Palmeiras and San Lorenzo. I have weighted the statistical data and used the expert analysis as context.
Palmeiras Statistical Analysis
Offensive play and effectiveness:
- Palmeiras scored 14 goals in 5 matches, which is 2.8 goals per match.
- They have an xG (expected goals) of 7.9, which means that they have scored more goals than statistically expected.
- Raphael Veiga and Gustavo Gómez are the team’s most successful players, both scoring 2-2 goals.
- Raphael Veiga has also contributed 3 assists to the team’s success, making him one of their most important attacking players.
Defence and goalkeeping performance:
- The team has conceded just 5 goals in 5 matches, which is 1 goal per match.
- Their goalkeeper, Weverton, has a save percentage of 77.3%, which is very high.
Passing and ball possession:
- Their average ball possession is 51%, showing a solid midfield dominance.
- Marcos Rocha and Joaquín Piquerez are the two most accurate passers in the team, the former with 81.2% and the latter with 76% passing efficiency.
San Lorenzo Statistical Analysis
Offensive play and effectiveness:
- San Lorenzo has scored just 6 goals in 5 matches, which is 1.2 goals per match.
- Their xG is 6.0, which is the same as the goals scored, so the team’s goal production is at the expected level.
- Ivan Leguizamon and Alexis Cuello are their most effective players, the former scoring 2 goals and the latter providing 3 assists.
Defence and goalkeeping performance:
- The team scored 6 goals in 5 matches, which is 1.2 goals per match.
- Goalkeeper Facundo Altamirano has a 72.2% save percentage.
Passing and ball possession:
- They have an average possession of 38%, which shows that they are more focused on defensive play.
- Malcolm Braida and Gastón Campi are the two most accurate passers in the team, the former with 65.3% and the latter with 82.8%.
Motivation and Team Building
Palmeiras:
- The team is currently top of the group, a sure qualifier, so they will be motivated to keep their form and rotate the team.
- Gustavo Gómez and Raphael Veiga could be key players in the attack.
San Lorenzo:
- The team still has a chance of progressing, so a win is crucial for them.
- Alexis Cuello and Ivan Leguizamon could be key in the attack.
Low Risk Betting Proposals
- Palmeiras win – Low risk
- Based on the statistics and the team’s form, Palmeiras are the more likely to win.
- Both teams score – Medium risk!
- Both teams have average defensive performances, and both sides have players with goalscoring ability.
- Palmeiras scores more than 1.5 goals – Low risk
- The Palmeiras attack is strong and they have scored more goals so far in the tournament.
- San Lorenzo scores less than 2.5 goals – Low risk
- San Lorenzo’s attack is not very effective and Palmeiras’ defence is strong.
Summary
Palmeiras is a statistically stronger team with better offensive and defensive indicators. A win is vital for San Lorenzo, but their performance so far will make it difficult for them. The proposed picks are low to medium risk based on the data and take into account the current form and motivation of both teams.