MLS, September 8, 2024
Before the match, combining the statistics and human analysis of New York Red Bulls and Sporting Kansas gives us a comprehensive picture of the expected outcomes and the safest betting opportunities. The in-depth analysis of statistics is particularly important, as they are less distorted by the subjective factors of analyst opinions.
New York Red Bulls:
- Form: New York Red Bulls have had an inconsistent season, with 10 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses in the last 27 matches. Although their xG (expected goals) is relatively high at 43.8, their actual goals fall slightly short of this, indicating some inefficiency in converting chances. Their defense is strong, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 31.5, meaning the defense is functioning well, and they have conceded only 34 goals.
- Key Players: Lewis Morgan and Dante Vanzeir play crucial roles in the attack. Morgan has scored 12 goals, with an xG of 10.1, showing he reliably scores. Vanzeir, however, has scored fewer goals than expected (6.8 xG and 2 actual goals), suggesting he doesn’t always capitalize on his chances.
- Team Dynamics: Red Bulls rely on strong defense and midfield buildup. With many draws and low-scoring victories, they tend to play tight matches and rarely win by large margins.
Sporting Kansas:
- Form: Kansas is having a tough season, with 14 losses and only 7 wins. Their xG is 33.1, which is lower than their actual goals, indicating they occasionally perform above expectations. However, their xGA of 40.5 indicates they allow many chances for opponents, and they concede more goals than expected.
- Key Players: Daniel Sallói and Johnny Russell are key attackers for Kansas. Sallói’s 2.3 xG and 3 actual goals, and Russell’s 3.5 xG and 4 goals, show they can capitalize on their chances. Goalkeeper Tim Melia’s performance is mixed, with a 1.87 goals-conceded average, confirming that the defense is not solid.
- Team Dynamics: Kansas often plays unstable games both offensively and defensively, frequently losing in tight matches. They have conceded many goals, including three or more in several games.
Betting Tips:
Low-risk tips:
- Under 3.5 goals in the match – low risk: Red Bulls tend to play low-scoring matches, thanks to their solid defense. Despite Kansas’ defensive weaknesses, it’s unlikely many goals will be scored. (Probability: 75%, 1.47x, Safe Kelly: 10%).
Medium-risk tips:
- New York Red Bulls win – medium risk: Red Bulls appear to be the more stable team, especially at home, while Kansas has shown weaker form on the road. (Probability: 60%, 1.68x, 6.5%).
- Lewis Morgan to score – medium risk: Morgan is Red Bulls’ top scorer, and with his high xG, he’s a reliable scoring option against Kansas’ weak defense. Probability: (50-55%, 2.30x, 2%).
Overall, Red Bulls appear to be the more stable team with strong defense and effective chance utilization. Kansas’ weak defense, especially away from home, gives Red Bulls an advantage. The match is likely to be close, but Red Bulls’ home advantage and Morgan’s presence make a win more likely.