01/06/2024, 1:30 (Central European Time), Major League Soccer, USA
Analysis and prediction New York City FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Summary of statistics and expert analysis
The upcoming match between New York City FC and the San Jose Earthquakes is a match where statistical data and expert analysis suggest that there are several key factors to consider.
New York City FC Statistics
New York City FC are currently in third place in the Eastern Conference with 26 points from 15 games. In those matches, they have scored 19 goals and conceded 16, a positive goal difference. Their team xG (expected goals) is 22.3, while their opponents xG is 19.0, which also shows a positive difference (+3.3). They have won four of their last five matches, which shows good form.
Key players and performance
- Santiago Rodríguez: 5 goals and 3 assists in 14.4 games. xG: 4.8, npxG (goals not expected from penalties): 3.2.
- Hannes Wolf: 2 goals and 4 assists in 12.6 games. xG: 2.3, npxG: 2.3.
- Matt Freese: As a goalie, he has a 78.4% save percentage, which is one of the team’s strengths defensively.
San Jose Earthquakes Statistics
The San Jose Earthquakes are currently in 14th place in the Western Conference, with 11 points in 15 games. In those games, they have scored 22 goals and conceded 34, a negative goal differential. Their xG ratio is 22.1, while their opponents’ xG ratio is 23.2, which also shows a negative differential (-1.1). They have lost three of their last five games, which indicates poor form.
Key players and performance
- Cristian Espinoza: 2 goals and 9 assists in 14.8 games. xG: 2.9, npxG: 2.9.
- Jeremy Ebobisse: 4 goals in 10.2 games. xG: 3.9, npxG: 3.1.
- William Yarbrough: As a goalkeeper, he has a 67.8% save percentage, which is average.
Analysis and recommendations for recipients
In predicting the match between New York City FC and San Jose Earthquakes, I suggest the following three picks, which are low to medium risk:
- New York City FC win (Low risk)
- Based on the current form and home performance of New York City FC, a win is likely. They have won four of their last five matches, while the San Jose Earthquakes are struggling in away games.
- New York City FC scores more than 1.5 goals (Medium risk)
- New York City FC’s attacking line-up is strong, especially based on the performances of Santiago Rodríguez and Hannes Wolf. Based on their goal scoring ability in recent matches, they are likely to score more than 1.5 goals.
- Both teams score (Medium risk)
- Although New York City FC’s defense is strong, the San Jose Earthquakes are also capable of scoring goals, especially with Jeremy Ebobisse and Cristian Espinoza. Both teams have scored often in recent matches, so this is a likely bet.
Motivation and interesting facts
For New York City FC, the match is crucial to consolidate their position at the top of the Eastern Conference. In contrast, for the San Jose Earthquakes, every point is important to avoid relegation. Analysis suggests that New York City FC are the more motivated and in better form team, which will further boost their chances of victory.
Closing words
Based on the statistics and expert analysis, New York City FC is the favorite in this match, especially at home. For bettors, the above three picks are low to medium risk, considering the performance and form of both teams.