FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Matchday 20
Team Statistics and Form
Montpellier
- Ranked 17th in the table with 15 points after 19 matches.
- Won their last two matches (2-1 against Monaco and 2-1 against Toulouse), showing slight improvement.
- Very weak defense: Conceded 44 goals (most in the league), while scoring only 20 (second fewest).
- Dangerous in comebacks, as they overturned a deficit in both of their recent wins.
- XG stats: Underperformed in several matches based on expected goals.
Lens
- Ranked 7th with 30 points, close to European qualification spots.
- Strong away form: Won 4, drew 4, and lost only 1 of their 9 away matches.
- Best away defense: Conceded only 8 goals on the road, the lowest in Ligue 1.
- Recent matches: Lost 2-1 to PSG but won 1-0 against Angers.
- XG stats: Their defensive metrics are strong, and their expected goal difference is positive.
Key Player Performances and Stats
Montpellier Key Players:
- Téji Savanier (MF, 33 years old)
- 2 goals, 4 assists.
- 71 ball recoveries, vital in midfield playmaking.
- A reliable penalty taker.
- Musa Al-Taamari (FW)
- Scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches.
- His speed and dribbling could trouble Lens’ defense.
- Modibo Sagnan (DF)
- Strong in aerial duels (48.4% win rate), useful in set pieces.
Lens Key Players:
- Przemysław Frankowski (DF)
- 4 goals, 2 assists—great stats for a defender.
- Key in attack due to his progressive passing.
- Facundo Medina (DF, MF)
- 98 ball recoveries, a very solid defender.
- High aerial duel success rate (66.7%).
- Brice Samba (GK)
- The goalkeeper with the fewest goals conceded in away matches.
- 7.0 xG+/- rating, meaning he stops more shots than expected.
Low-Risk Betting Tip
- Lens Win or Draw + Under 4.5 Goals 🏆
- Justification: Lens dominates this matchup, and Montpellier’s weak defense suggests another Lens win.
Odds: 1.47 – Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Betting Tip
- Lens Win & Under 3.5 Goals 🏆⚽
- Probability: 55%
- Justification: Lens typically plays low-scoring games, and Montpellier struggles to score.
Odds: 3.00 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Statistical Findings
📌 Lens has the best away defense in Ligue 1, conceding only 8 goals.
📌 Montpellier has not beaten Lens in their last 6 meetings (0 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses).
📌 Montpellier has conceded the most goals in the league (44), giving Lens a great opportunity.
📌 Montpellier’s last two wins were comeback victories, so even if Lens scores first, caution is needed.
Conclusion
📌 Most Likely Winner: Lens (60.83%)
📌 Expected Scoreline: 0-1 or 0-2 for Lens
📌 Best Bets: Lens win, Montpellier under 1.5 goals, 0-2 total goals.
Based on these factors, Lens is the favorite, and a close, low-scoring match is expected. Montpellier’s defensive issues could be decisive.