France Ligue 1 – Round 3, September 1, 2024
Monaco Analysis
Monaco has demonstrated strong defensive performances so far, having conceded no goals in their first two matches, both of which they won (1-0 against Saint-Étienne, 2-0 against Lyon). The defensive stability is highlighted by a high clearance and tackle rate, especially from players like Mohammed Salisu and Thilo Kehrer. Goalkeeper Philipp Köhn has achieved a 100% save rate in both matches, further emphasizing the strength of the defense.
In attack, Monaco has shown a balanced performance, with multiple players such as Lamine Camara and Takumi Minamino contributing with goals and assists. According to the xG (expected goals) statistic, Monaco has achieved 4.2 xG, indicating they have been effective in capitalizing on their chances.
Lens Analysis
Lens is also in good form, having started the season with two wins as well. Defensively, Lens has shown a stable performance similar to Monaco, with no goals conceded in two matches. Kevin Danso and Facundo Medina have performed well at the heart of the defense, while goalkeeper Brice Samba has also been flawless.
However, Lens has been slightly more effective in attack: Wesley Saïd and Jhoanner Chávez have both scored, and their xG (expected goals) is 4.1, which indicates that Lens is effective in creating and utilizing chances. However, Lens takes more shots than Monaco, but their efficiency does not always translate into goals (for example, only 4 out of Florian Sotoca’s 8 shots were on target).
Risk Analysis and Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Monaco Draw No Bet (Asian Handicap 0)
- Monaco is strong at home, and Lens does not have the strongest attack. This bet seems more likely than a straight win, considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams.
- Odds: 1.41 – Safe Kelly: 10%
Medium-Risk Tips:
2. Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (60%)
- Justification: Both teams are committed to defending and often commit fouls, especially due to tough challenges. The tension in the match is expected to lead to several yellow cards.
- Odds: 1.62 – Safe Kelly: 4%