25/05/2024, FA Cup Final
The FA Cup final between Manchester City and Manchester United is always an exciting event, and this time will be no different. Based on statistical data and expert analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn.
Statistical data analysis
Manchester City
Manchester City’s 2023-2024 season was an impressive one. In 38 matches in the Premier League, they recorded 28 wins, 7 draws and only 3 defeats. In total, they scored 96 goals and conceded 34, giving them a goal difference of +62.
- Erling Haaland is in outstanding form, scoring 27 goals and assisting 5. His xG (expected goals) statistic also supports his performance (29.2), which is very close to his real goals scored.
- Phil Foden also put in a remarkable performance, scoring 19 goals and providing 8 assists. The difference between his xG (10.3) and his actual goals (19) is significant, suggesting that he was extremely efficient in taking advantage of his opportunities.
- Julián Álvarez registered 11 goals and 8 assists, which also played an important role in the team’s success.
The team’s defence was also excellent, conceding only 34 goals during the season. Ederson, the goalkeeper, had a 70.7% save percentage, which provided a solid foundation for the defense.
Manchester United
Manchester United’s 2023-2024 season was a mixed one. In 38 Premier League matches, they recorded 18 wins, 7 draws and 13 defeats. In total, they scored 54 goals and conceded 48, a goal difference of +6.
- Bruno Fernandes was the driving force behind the team, scoring 15 goals and providing 12 assists. The difference between his xG (11.6) and his actual goals (15) shows that he made good use of his opportunities.
- Rasmus Højlund was also notable, scoring 16 goals and assisting 2, and his xG was 11.2, suggesting that the actual goals scored exceeded expectations.
- Marcus Rashford scored 8 goals and 5 assists, but his performance was a bit inconsistent.
However, the defence was a challenge for United. Goalkeeper André Onana has conceded 56 goals in 50 games, a relatively high number and an indication of a lack of defensive stability.
Expert analysis
Experts have highlighted that Manchester City’s motivation and form are outstanding. Guardiola’s side have dominated the Premier League and their attacking play is formidable. The experts point out that City’s strengths include quick ball movement and accurate finishing, especially from Haaland and Foden.
Manchester United, on the other hand, have had a varied season and defensive deficiencies can be particularly problematic against an attacking team like City. Experts believe that United’s success will largely depend on how well Fernandes and Højlund can exploit City’s defensive flaws.
Tip for bettors
- Manchester City win – Low risk
City are in dominant form and the stats back them to win with high probability. Their strong attack and solid defence make this a safe bet. - Erling Haaland scoring a goal – Low risk
Haaland is in excellent form and his goal tally for the season shows it. Given the consistency between xG and actual goals, he is likely to score again. - Both teams score – Medium risk
United’s attacking line, especially with Fernandes and Højlund, is capable of scoring goals, even against City. However, City’s attack is also strong, so both teams are likely to score.
Final summary
Based on statistical and expert analysis, Manchester City are the favourites to win, especially with their strong attack and solid defence. Although Manchester United may be capable of scoring goals, their defensive deficiencies will make it difficult for them to keep pace with City.