EUROPE: Europa League – Group Stage – Round 1 – September 26, 2024
Team Comparison:
Malmö
- Form: Malmö dominates the Swedish league, leading by 11 points, and they haven’t conceded a goal in four matches. This provides significant momentum, especially at home. Recently, they achieved 4-0 victories against Djurgardens and Hacken, demonstrating their attacking power and solid defense.
- Injuries: Malmö may be without several key players, such as Sead Haksabanovic, Niklas Moisander, and Oscar Lewicki. However, the depth of the squad may be enough to compensate for these absences.
- Playing Style: Malmö is strong at home, with high possession stats and numerous shots on goal, which allows them to control games in front of their home crowd.
Rangers
- Form: Rangers’ form is inconsistent, especially away from home. Over the last six months, they’ve won only three away games. They’ve performed well in Europe in recent years, but they are currently under significant pressure after defeats to Celtic and elimination in the Champions League qualifiers against Dynamo Kyiv.
- Players: Cyriel Dessers is in excellent attacking form, scoring 7 goals in 9 matches, and he could play a key role in Rangers’ offense. Their defense is solid, with Jack Butland performing well in goal, boasting a 66.7% save rate.
- Injuries: The absence of Danilo and Rabbi Matondo could weaken their attacking line, while Ridvan Yilmaz’s absence might cause problems in defense.
Statistical Analysis and Trends
Goals and Attacks:
- Malmö: Malmö has scored 57 goals in their last 6 matches and typically wins with goals at home. Their attack is strong, particularly with quick transitions on the counter, which could be effective against Rangers. The most common results statistically are 2-1 and 1-0 in Malmö’s favor, suggesting a close but Malmö-leaning match.
- Rangers: Rangers have scored fewer goals (9), and their away form is unstable. Cyriel Dessers may be the key player, but statistics suggest that they will struggle to score multiple goals, especially against Malmö’s solid defense.
Defense:
- Malmö: Malmö has not conceded in their last four games, demonstrating stable and disciplined defense. However, in European matches, they tend to concede more, particularly against stronger opponents.
- Rangers: Rangers’ defense doesn’t appear reliable enough, especially away. Their players have shown some indiscipline, accumulating several yellow cards in recent matches.
Tips and Risk Analysis
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Both teams to score (66.24% probability): Given Malmö’s attacking strength and Rangers’ form, it’s likely both teams will find the net.
- Odds: 1.76 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Over 2 goals (Asian line): Both teams have strong attacking potential, so more than 2 goals are expected.
- Odds: 1.47 – Safe Kelly: 2%
Conclusion
Overall, the statistics and expert analysis predict a close, balanced match, with Malmö holding a slight advantage due to their home ground. Safer bets are focused on goals and both teams scoring, as predicting the exact outcome is more uncertain.