SPAIN: La Liga – Round 19
Team Statistics Analysis
- Mallorca:
- Attacking Efficiency: Scored only 15 goals in 15 matches, indicating weak attacking play. Their xG (expected goals) values are low in most games, but their tight defensive structure keeps them at 6th place on the table.
- Defense: Conceded only 13 goals, one of the best defensive stats in La Liga. The defense is stable, especially under Antonio Raillo’s leadership.
- Possession: Average possession rate (about 45-50%) shows they tend to rely on counterattacks rather than dominating games.
- Barcelona:
- Attack: The best attacking line in the league with 43 goals. Lewandowski’s 15 goals and Raphinha’s 9 demonstrate their exceptional forward play.
- Defense: Conceded 16 goals, but 4 in their last 3 matches, indicating a weakening trend.
- Possession and Control: High possession rate (60%+), showing dominance over opponents.
Player Statistics Analysis
- Mallorca Key Players:
- Antonio Raillo: Stable defensive stats, strong aerial duel win rate (58%).
- Vedat Muriqi: A key part of their attack, his return could provide significant reinforcement.
- Johan Mojica: Involved in left-sided attacks but inconsistent.
- Barcelona Key Players:
- Robert Lewandowski: Outstanding efficiency, with an xG+/- rate of 1.21 per match, ranking among La Liga’s best.
- Jules Koundé and Iñigo Martínez: Crucial in maintaining midfield dominance with their defensive play.
Tactical Trends and Observations
- Barcelona adopts a clear attacking mindset, while Mallorca focuses on “suffocating” matches with their defense.
- Mallorca has won their last two matches, boosting confidence, whereas Barcelona’s form has declined in their last three league games.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips
- Barcelona win (51.23%):
- Despite inconsistent form, Barcelona is favored due to their stronger attack.
- Probability: 67%.
- Odds: 1.60 – Kelly: 3%
- Both Teams to Score (51.47%):
- Mallorca’s defense is solid, but Barcelona’s attack almost always scores.
- Probability: 60%.
- Odds: 1.82 – Kelly: 2%
Interesting Points
- Mallorca performing better than expected: Despite their weak attack, their solid defense keeps them in the upper half of the table.
- Barcelona’s declining form: They have only earned one point in their last three matches, increasing pressure on Hansi Flick’s squad.
- Static defensive formation: Mallorca rarely deviates from their 4-2-3-1 formation, demonstrating a clear defensive intent.
Conclusion
Mallorca will likely play a tight, defensive game, while Barcelona will aim to dominate. Based on statistics, a Barcelona victory is expected, but Mallorca could spring a surprise if they continue relying on their defensive strengths.