Champions League Qualifiers, August 6, 2024
Form and Statistics
Lille
- Recent results: WDWDLW
- Last match: Lille 3-1 Celta Vigo (friendly match)
Fenerbahce
- Recent results: DLWWWW
- Champions League form: WW
- Last match: Fenerbahce 2-1 Lugano (Champions League Qualifier)
Based on the analysis, Fenerbahce has a 40.24% chance of winning, Lille has a 34.64% chance of winning, and a draw has a 25.1% chance. The most likely outcome is a 0-1 win for Fenerbahce at 8.77%, followed by 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The most likely outcome for a Lille win is 1-0 (8.03%), while the most likely draw is 1-1 (11.82%).
Expert Opinion
According to the analysis, Fenerbahce may be the stronger team in the match, especially in the early stages, as Lille has not played a competitive match this season. Fenerbahce, however, has already gone through a Champions League qualifier, defeating Lugano 6-4 on aggregate. This shows that the Turkish team is already in competition and arrives in good form for the match.
Teams and Players
Lille
- Probable lineup: Chevalier; Meunier, Diakite, Alexsandro, Gudmundsson; Santos, Gomes, Cabella, Andre, Haraldsson; David
- Key players: Jonathan David (forward), Meunier (defender)
Fenerbahce
- Probable lineup: Livakovic; Osayi-Samuel, Djiku, Soyuncu, Oosterwolde; Fred, Krunic; Tadic, Szymanski, Kadioglu; Dzeko
- Key players: Edin Dzeko (forward), Dusan Tadic (attacking midfielder), Fred (midfielder)
Fenerbahce’s new signings, such as Allan Saint-Maximin and Caglar Soyuncu, significantly strengthen the team, especially in defense and attack. Edin Dzeko has already scored four goals in the two Champions League qualifiers, making him particularly dangerous for Lille’s defense.
Interesting Facts and Motivations
- Fenerbahce aims to reach the Champions League group stage and reclaim the Turkish league title from Galatasaray.
- For Lille, performing well under new coach Bruno Genesio is important at the start of the season.
Recommendations
Low-Risk Bets:
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Odds: 1.83x, 57.05% probability, 1.32% quarter-Kelly criterion.
- Low risk: Given both teams’ attacking strength and the stakes of the match, it is likely that both sides will score.
- Fenerbahce win or draw (Double Chance): Odds: 1.72x, 65.34% probability, 4.3% quarter-Kelly criterion.
- Low risk: Fenerbahce is in strong form and already in competition this season, while Lille has not played a competitive match yet.
Medium-Risk Bets:
- Over 2.5 goals: Odds: 2.04x, 53.55% probability, 2.25% quarter-Kelly criterion.
- Medium risk: Given both teams’ attacking strength and the stakes of the match, it is likely that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.
Summary
Due to Fenerbahce’s stronger form and Lille’s lack of competition, it is advisable to place low-risk bets on both teams to score and on Fenerbahce not to lose (win or draw). For medium-risk bets, consider Fenerbahce’s win, the number of goals, and Edin Dzeko scoring. These tips are statistically and expert-supported, considering both teams’ motivations and players.