Le Havre – Lyon

FRANCE: Ligue 1 – Round 8

The Le Havre vs Lyon match statistical analysis reveals several interesting insights, and based on this analysis, several betting tips can be made that carry low to medium risk from a betting perspective. Based on the statistics and expert human analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn.

Overview of Le Havre’s Situation:

Le Havre has shown weak form this season, losing four of their last five matches and conceding a total of 15 goals in seven matches (an average of 2.14 goals conceded per match). Despite this, they have had some positive results, such as a 2-0 victory over Saint-Étienne. Their attackers have not been particularly effective, having scored only 6 goals this season, and their defense is shaky, as indicated by their goalkeeper Arthur Desmas’ 65% save efficiency. The team’s xG (expected goals) is just 7.6, which suggests they do not create many chances. Additionally, their high number of yellow cards and fouls (13 yellow cards, averaging 1.86 per match) is a sign of indiscipline.

Overview of Lyon’s Situation:

Lyon has also shown inconsistent form this season but performs better than Le Havre. They have been able to deliver standout performances, such as their 4-3 victory against Strasbourg. Lyon has scored 8 goals and conceded 12, but their defense is also a weak point, as they concede an average of 1.71 goals per match. Their forwards, such as Alexandre Lacazette and Gift Orban, are dangerous in front of goal, with Orban scoring 0.97 goals per match (2 goals in 3 matches). Lyon’s xG of 12.1 indicates they create more chances than Le Havre.

Motivation and Tactical Situation:

According to human analysis, Le Havre’s primary goal is to avoid relegation, so they are highly motivated but in weak form. Lyon’s goal is to climb back into the middle of the table, and they are also fighting for international competition spots. Tactically, Lyon is more dominant in possession (around 60-65%), while Le Havre tends to play more defensively, relying on counter-attacks and set pieces.

Betting Tips and Risks:

Low-Risk Tips:

  1. Lyon Draw No Bet (Asian 0 Handicap) – Lyon has a stronger attack, with Gift Orban and Alexandre Lacazette able to score, while Le Havre’s defense is vulnerable, as evidenced by their 15 goals conceded. Lyon’s 2.84 xG per match indicates they create more chances than Le Havre.
    • Probability: 60%

Odds: 1.44 – Safe Kelly: 6%

  1. Le Havre to Receive More than 1.5 Yellow Cards – Le Havre’s players often commit fouls, having received 13 yellow cards so far, averaging 1.86 cards per match. Lyon’s technical players, like Lacazette and Benrahma, can draw fouls.
    • Probability: 75%

Odds: 1.50 – Safe Kelly: 6%

Conclusion:

Lyon arrives as the more dominant team, while Le Havre’s weak defense and limited chances give them a low likelihood of causing an upset. Based on the analysis, bets on Lyon scoring more than 1.5 goals and the match having more than 2.5 goals seem like safer bets.

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