Juventude – Botafogo

Brazilian Serie A Match

Detailed Analysis of the Juventude vs. Botafogo Match

Juventude Analysis

Juventude’s current season has been rather mixed, with 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses from their 19 matches, accumulating a total of 22 points. They are relatively stronger at home, with 5 wins and only one loss, while their performance away is weaker (0-3-6). The team’s defense is shaky, having conceded 25 goals (1.32 goals/match), while they’ve scored 21 goals, showing relatively low efficiency in attack (1.11 goals/match).

The team’s xG (expected goals) is 21.0, which matches their actual goals scored, while their xGA (expected goals against) is 29.7, indicating a significant difference compared to the actual number of goals conceded. This suggests that their defense is not very effective, allowing their opponents several dangerous opportunities.

Key Players:

• Lucas Barbosa: 4 goals, 1 assist, xG 3.4, showing he is an effective attacker for the team. His performance could be crucial against Botafogo.
• Gabriel (goalkeeper): 22 goals conceded and a 79% save rate. Although his performance as a goalkeeper is commendable, he has a tough job due to the high number of chances allowed by the defense.
• Jadson: Outstanding in midfield, with 1 goal and 5 assists, xAG (expected assists) of 2.4, demonstrating his ability to create chances for his teammates.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo has performed more steadily this season, with 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses from 20 matches. Their xG indicator is 33.7, significantly better than Juventude’s, indicating that they create far more scoring opportunities. Additionally, their xGA is 25.8, showing that their defense is better, allowing fewer chances to their opponents.

Key Players:

• Tiquinho Soares: 4 goals, 3 assists, xG 4.6, and xAG 1.7, indicating he is a dangerous attacker and a key player against Juventude.
• John (goalkeeper): 2 goals conceded in 18 matches, an impressive performance, providing solid defense for the team.
• Luiz Henrique: 4 goals, 3 assists, xG 2.0, showing he also plays an important role in attack.

Risk Assessment for Betting Tips

Low-Risk Tips

1. Few goals expected (under 2.5 goals) (1.61x, Kelly criterion: 7.62%): Both teams rely on defense, with Juventude’s weak attack and Botafogo’s solid defense leading to a low number of goals. (Low risk, 65%)
2. Botafogo does not lose (X2) (1.28x, Kelly criterion: 0%): Botafogo is in better form and has been more consistent. (Low risk, 70%)

Medium-Risk Tips

1. Juventude scores less than 1.5 goals (1.32x, Kelly criterion: 0%): Juventude’s attack is weak, and Botafogo has a stable defense. (Medium risk, 60%)

Interesting Facts

• Botafogo’s winning percentage away is higher than Juventude’s at home, making them more likely to earn points.
• Juventude usually plays close matches at home, so it might be worth considering the draw option.

Closing Thoughts

Botafogo is the favorite, especially considering Juventude’s weak attack and defense. The safest bets are on a low number of goals and Botafogo not losing.