EUROPA: Conference League – Group Stage – Round 6
1. Team Statistical Analysis
Jagiellonia Białystok Team Stats:
- Form in the Conference League:
After a winning streak, 1 draw and 1 loss. - Defense:
Conceded on average 1 goal away, but their defense is stronger at home. - Attack:
xG (expected goals) higher at home: 2.4 (against Molde) and 2.6 (against Petrocub). - Possession:
Higher possession at home (60%), while away it drops (32-42%).
Olimpija Ljubljana Team Stats:
- Form in the Conference League:
Mixed performance; away wins and losses. - Defense:
Conceded goals in 2 away matches (Heidenheim, Rijeka). - Attack:
Reliable according to xG, but finishing is inconsistent.
2. Player Statistical Analysis
Jagiellonia Key Player Performances:
- Afimico Pululu: 5 goals, 1 assist – key to their attacking play.
- Jesús Imaz: 15 goals this season – a consistent goal scorer.
- Dušan Stojinovič: Strong in defense, 88.9% aerial duel win rate.
Olimpija Ljubljana Key Player Performances:
- Raul Florucz: 12 goals this season – a vital part of their attack.
- Marcel Ratnik: Solid defense, high aerial duel win rate (75%).
- Agustín Doffo: 43 ball recoveries – crucial in midfield defense.
3. Recommended Betting Tips
Low-Risk Bet:
- Jagiellonia win or draw (1X)
- Probability: 62.82% (Jagiellonia win 36.96%, draw 25.86%)
- Reasoning: Jagiellonia is stronger at home, and Olimpija is not convincing away.
Odds: 1.52 – Kelly: 2%
Medium-Risk Bet:
- Both teams to score
- Probability: 54.72%
- Reasoning: Both teams have strong attacking power, and defensive mistakes are likely (Jagiellonia conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches).
Odds: 1.75 – Kelly: 1%
4. Interesting Facts and Observations
- Jesús Imaz continues to lead Jagiellonia’s goal-scoring chart, even at 34 years old.
- Raul Florucz is the key figure in Olimpija Ljubljana’s attack – without him, their offensive play is much less effective.
- Expected goal difference (xG): Both teams have played tight matches, with minimal xG differences, increasing the uncertainty of the match outcome.
This analysis was made by combining statistical data and analyst opinions. The betting tips have been kept in the low and medium-risk categories to minimize the risk.