England: Premier League – Matchday 14
Team Statistics
Ipswich Town:
- Formation and Performance:
- Still waiting for their first home win of the season, with significant issues in defensive stability (10 consecutive matches without a clean sheet).
- Their 4-2-3-1 formation focuses on securing the midfield but lacks attacking efficiency.
- Attack:
- Liam Delap leads the team with six goals, but there are no other standout scorers.
- Their xG (expected goals) value (0.4–0.5 per match) highlights their attacking weakness.
- Defense:
- Defensive statistics (xGA: 2.6 against stronger opponents) indicate frequent vulnerabilities.
Crystal Palace:
- Formation and Performance:
- Crystal Palace’s 3-4-3 formation allows for a more offensive style, reflected in their two-goal average in recent away games.
- Attack:
- Jean-Philippe Mateta and Daniel Muñoz contribute most of the team’s goals. The return of Eberechi Eze could strengthen their offensive play.
- Defense:
- Marc Guéhi, an experienced center-back, anchors the defense, although the team has yet to secure a clean sheet away from home.
Player Statistics
- Ipswich Key Players:
- Liam Delap: A dangerous forward with six goals, but his low xG/90 value (0.5) suggests he relies on situational efficiency.
- Sam Morsy: Defensive midfielder contributing the most ball recoveries (59).
- Crystal Palace Key Players:
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: Three goals and plays a key role in breaking through defenses.
- Marc Guéhi: Provides stability to the defense, with a 63% aerial duel success rate.
Recommendations and Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tip
- Total Goals: Over 2 Goals:
- Explanation: Both Ipswich and Palace’s defenses are prone to errors.
- Probability: ~68%
Odds: 1.46 – Kelly: 3%
Medium-Risk Tip
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS):
- Explanation: Ipswich hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 10 matches, while Palace regularly scores away from home.
- Probability: ~60%
Odds: 1.73 – Kelly: 1%
Interesting Observations
- Ipswich is still searching for their first home win, which could motivate them.
- Crystal Palace’s last-minute goal against Newcastle demonstrates their mental resilience.
- Ipswich’s low possession rate (30–40%) may struggle against Palace’s pressing.
Summary
Ipswich Town desperately needs points at home, but Crystal Palace’s attacking play, especially away, looks stronger. The match is evenly balanced, though Crystal Palace has a slight edge based on recent form. Betting focus should be on total goals and individual performances.