BRAZIL: Serie A Betano – Round 35
1. Team Statistics and Trends
Internacional:
- Form: Internacional is unbeaten in 15 matches, including 11 home games (8 wins, 3 draws). In their last 6 matches, they have secured 5 wins and 1 draw.
- Attack: The team’s top scorers are Wesley (9 goals), Rafael Borré (8 goals), and Alan Patrick (7 goals). Their xG (expected goals) stats reflect a solid attacking performance, especially at home.
- Defense: At home, only 2 losses in 17 matches and just 17 goals conceded. The defense’s strength is evident in the opponents’ low xGA (expected goals against) stats.
Red Bull Bragantino:
- Form: Bragantino is winless in their last 10 matches (7 draws, 3 losses). Their away form is particularly poor, with their last away win dating back to June.
- Attack: Eduardo Sasha (4 goals), Vitinho, and Lincoln (3 goals each) are the most dangerous players, but the team’s low xG stats indicate weak finishing ability.
- Defense: In 13 away matches, they have conceded 23 goals, highlighting a vulnerable defense. According to Cleiton Schwengber’s xGA, the goalkeeper’s performance is below average.
2. Player Statistics and Highlights
- Internacional: Wesley excels not only in scoring but also by winning 3 penalties. In midfield, Alan Patrick demonstrates creativity (4 assists).
- Bragantino: Eduardo Sasha is the team’s most dangerous player in attack, but he lacks strong support from midfield. In defense, Luan Cândido stands out with a 60% success rate in aerial duels.
3. Key Points from Expert Analysis
- History: In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Internacional has achieved 2 wins and 3 draws. Bragantino has not defeated them since 2021.
- Motivation: Internacional is fighting for Libertadores qualification, while Bragantino is trying to avoid relegation.
4. Recommendations and Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips:
- Total goals under 3 (Asian total):
- Reasoning: Recent matches have typically been low-scoring.
- Probability: ~75%.
- Internacional win:
- Reasoning: Bragantino’s current form and Internacional’s home dominance.
- Probability: ~65%.
Medium-Risk Tip:
Alternative Markets: 3. More than 4.5 yellow cards:
- Reasoning: A highly important match for both teams.
- Probability: ~70%.
Odds: 1.72 – Kelly: 2%
5. Interesting Facts
- Bragantino’s last away win was in June; they have failed to win in 13 away matches since then.
- Wesley is not only key in scoring but also in preparing attacks for Internacional.
- Cleiton Schwengber’s goalkeeping stats (xG+/- indicator) show that Bragantino has conceded more goals than expected, reflecting poor defense.
Based on this, Internacional appears to be the stronger team, but a conservative approach is advised for betting.