BRAZIL: Campeonato Brasileiro – Round 19, September 12, 2024
Analysis of Internacional:
Internacional has had mixed results recently, and their statistics do not show exceptional form. Their expected goals (xG) is 32.6, while their opponents’ xG is 18.6. This suggests that they can create opportunities but often fail to convert them. Notable players include Wesley, who has scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist in 20 matches, and Rafael Borré, who has netted 4 goals this season. Their attacking skills will be crucial in the match. Based on xG data, Internacional should expect more goals than they are currently achieving, indicating that their attackers could improve their performance.
Defensively, they are solid, with goalkeeper Sergio Rochet showing a save percentage of 77.1% and conceding an average of fewer than one goal per match (0.85). This suggests they will be difficult to break down, and their matches are likely to be low-scoring.
Analysis of Fortaleza:
Fortaleza has been performing moderately, with similarly mixed results. Breno has stood out in attack with 4 goals and 3 assists in 20 matches, and the team has managed 45 progressive attacking moves, showing their offensive intent. However, their xG is around 30, similar to Internacional’s, indicating that they are also creating more chances than they can convert.
Defensively, Emanuel Brítez and Guilherme Tinga are performing well, but they have allowed their opponents 338 progressive attacking moves, showing that the defense is not impenetrable. Fortaleza’s matches tend to be close, often ending in draws or narrow wins, suggesting that few goals are to be expected in their games.
Low-Risk Tip:
- Under 2.5 goals in the match
– Both teams struggle to score, while their defenses are relatively solid. Based on xG data and the limited number of completed attacks, it is likely that few goals will be seen.
Odds: 1.55 – Safe Kelly: 4%
Medium-Risk Tips:
- Draw in the 1st half
- Internacional has often struggled to dominate in the first half in recent games, and Fortaleza is also not known for fast starts. Both teams tend to push for a lead in the second half, making a draw at halftime quite likely.
Odds: 1.95 – Safe Kelly: 1%
- Under 10.5 corners in the match
- Both teams create few progressive attacks and few corners, so a low number of corners is expected.
Odds: 1.74 – Safe Kelly: 2%